Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, First Round, January 19)

Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch

The 11th seed, Daniil Medvedev, starts his 2026 Australian Open run against Jesper De Jong in the first round in Melbourne. Medvedev comes in off a Brisbane title over Brandon Nakashima in straight sets. He is a hard-court specialist, having elite stats in 2025, with 534 aces, 76% first-serve points won, and a strong 33% first-serve return points won. That return stat is the real separator, because it creates sustained pressure even against decent servers.

De Jong, ranked No. 73, has had a respectable trajectory with main-draw Slam appearances last season (outside Melbourne) and a finals run in Nordea. But he enters the Australian Open off early exits in Hong Kong and Adelaide. His 2025 ATP stats, with 74% first-serve points won, 28% first-serve return points won, and 36% break-point conversion, suggest that he can be competitive.

Daniil Medvedev is the 2026 #BrisbaneInternational Men's Singles Champion 🏆 pic.twitter.com/lGKArjcqmK
— Brisbane International (@BrisbaneTennis) January 11, 2026

Here, Medvedev is overwhelmingly likely to win, but with the moneyline priced near unplayable, the only real question is whether De Jong can steal enough games or a set to disrupt the routine straight-sets way.

For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.

Tournament & Round: Australian Open, First Round
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Five Sets
Date & Start Time: January 19, Not before 11:30 AM AEDT Local Time
Court: Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne, Australia

Best Bet: Total Games Under 30.5 (-118, FanDuel)

Book: Best price at FanDuel

Our best bet for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong is Total Games Under 30.5 (-118, FanDuel).

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Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Odds

Given below are the latest odds for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.

Market	FanDuel	BetMGM
Moneyline	Medvedev -3500 / De Jong +1280	Medvedev -1800 / De Jong +800
Game Handicap	Medvedev -8.5 +104 / De Jong +8.5 -136	Medvedev -8.5 +115 / De Jong +8.5 -150
Total Games	Over 30.5 -112 / Under 30.5 -118	Over 30.5 -114 / Under 30.5 -118
Set Betting	Medvedev 3-0 -195 / De Jong 3-0 +3500	Medvedev 3-0 -182 / De Jong 3-0 +3300
Total Sets	Over 3.5 +146 / Under 3.5 -200	Over 3.5 +145 / Under 3.5 -115

Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction & Picks

Our Pick: Daniil Medvedev -5.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)

This is one of those Round 1 matches where the market is right on the outcome but still beatable on efficiency. The moneyline is basically dead; (-3500) demands near-perfection in result probability. That doesn’t always happen in tennis. One shaky service game, one dip in focus, or one extended set can change that.

The cleaner approach is to price the most likely match script. Medvedev’s 2025 stats support dominance through repeated pressure. The 33% first-serve return points won stands out because it indicates he consistently creates holds for opponents. De Jong’s serving numbers are fine (74% first-serve points won), but his return level (28% first-serve return points won) doesn’t suggest he’ll generate enough disruption.

That’s why Under 30.5 games (-118) is the most efficient buy here. The main risk is volatility in best-of-five openers. If Medvedev sleepwalks through one set and drops it, the total is immediately fragile. But given the recent form (Brisbane title) and the return edge, the median outcome still projects as a controlled straight-sets win.

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Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

Shanghai – Semifinal
Almaty – Title
Vienna – R16
Paris Masters – Quarterfinal
Brisbane – Title

Daniil Medvedev has now won 22 professional career titles.

At 22 different tournaments.

He's NEVER won the same one twice.

One of the most incredible stats in tennis. pic.twitter.com/kxkSUd6dnT
— Swish 🍒 Tennis (@Zwxsh) January 11, 2026

Jesper De Jong Recent Form

Stockholm – R32
Vienna – Qualifiers
Paris Masters – Qualifiers
Hong Kong – R32
Adelaide – Qualifiers

ATP Tour Finalist! 🤩

Jesper De Jong advances into a career first ATP Tour-level final with a 6-3 7-6 win over Ugo Carabelli#NordeaOpen pic.twitter.com/LHjdtZhMzh
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) July 19, 2025

Head-to-Head History

Daniil Medvedev and Jesper De Jong do not have a head-to-head record yet.

Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop

Projection: Daniil Medvedev wins in straight sets.

Higher Variance Set Prop: Daniil Medvedev 3-0 (-195, FanDuel). However, given that this is a higher-variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option rather than a primary one.

How can I watch Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong on TV and live stream?

TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.

Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.

Match	Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong
Date	January 19, 2026
Start Time	Not before 11:30 AM AEDT
Tournament	Australian Open 2026
Event Type	Men’s Singles (Grand Slam)
Surface	Outdoor Hard Court
Court	Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
TV Coverage	ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN/RDS (Canada), 9NOW
Live Streaming	ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select)

Image Credit: Imagn Images

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.