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Coco Gauff vs. Elise Mertens Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Third seed Coco Gauff faces Elise Mertens in the third round of the 2026 Dubai Tennis Championships, with Gauff entering as world No. 4 and Mertens ranked No. 22 in singles. Gauff received a first-round bye before defeating Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets, while Mertens advanced with straight-set wins over Marie Bouzkova and 14th seed Emma Navarro.
From a statistical standpoint, Gauff holds clear advantages on return and overall rally pressure. In 2025, she won 47.6% of return points and converted 53.3% of break points across 78 matches. Mertens, while solid across the board, posted lower return-point production (43.8%) and break-point conversion (49.5%) over a similar sample. Here, serve efficiency slightly favors Mertens, but without a meaningful edge.
Form entering Dubai is mixed for both. Gauff’s recent results include a Wuhan title, a Beijing semifinal, and an Australian Open quarterfinal, though she exited early in Doha. Mertens opened 2026 with early singles losses but arrived in Dubai in better rhythm after two controlled wins this week. Head-to-head history favors Gauff at 4-0, with wins across multiple surfaces, suggesting a stable matchup edge.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Coco Gauff vs. Elise Mertens today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Coco Gauff -3.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)
Book: Best price at Fanduel
Our best bet for Coco Gauff vs. Elise Mertens is Coco Gauff -3.5 Games (-126, FanDuel).
Given below are the latest odds for Coco Gauff vs. Elise Mertens from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | Gauff -230 / Mertens +188 | Gauff -278 / Mertens +180 |
| Game Handicap | Gauff -3.5 (-126) / Mertens +3.5 (-106) | Gauff -125 / Mertens -109 |
| Total Games | Over 20.5 (-120) / Under 20.5 (-110) | Over 21.5 (-105) / Under 21.5 (-125) |
| Set Betting | Gauff 2-0 (+105) / Mertens 2-0 (+360) | Gauff 2-0 (+104) / Mertens 2-0 (+350) |
| Total Sets | Over 2.5 (+146) / Under 2.5 (-200) | Over 2.5 (+145) / Under 2.5 (-278) |
Our Pick: Coco Gauff -3.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)
The moneyline correctly prices Gauff as the superior player, but -230 offers little efficiency given Mertens’ ability to hold serve and stretch sets. Gauff’s edge comes from return pressure rather than overwhelming first-strike tennis, which historically leads to breaks.
That makes the -3.5 game handicap the most balanced choice. Gauff’s return-point advantage and head-to-head dominance suggest she can generate enough breaks to cover this number. The price sits in a reasonable range relative to the implied probability.
Coco Gauff has the lead 4-0 in her head-to-head against Elise Mertens, with wins coming across hard, clay, and grass. Though Mertens did win two sets in total, ten sets, offering resistance but not enough to stop Gauff.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Coco Gauff | Indian Wells | Round of 16 | 6-0, 6-2 |
| 2023 | Coco Gauff | US Open | Round of 32 | 3-6, 6-3, 6-0 |
| 2022 | Coco Gauff | Roland Garros | Round of 16 | 6-4, 6-0 |
| 2021 | Coco Gauff | Eastbourne | Round of 32 | 0-6, 7-6(4), 7-5 |
Projection: Coco Gauff wins in straight sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Coco Gauff 2-0 (+105, FanDuel). Given that this is a high-risk bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary angle.
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Dubai Tennis Championships include Tennis Channel (USA, Spain, and India), TSN / TVA (Canada), Sky Sports (UK & Ireland and much of Europe), and beIN Sports / DAZN (Middle East, Australia, France, and Europe).
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Live streaming is available on Tennis TV (official ATP/WTA streaming platform), beIN CONNECT (Middle East/Asia), ESPN+ (some regions), streaming platforms of Sky Go/NOW TV, DAZN app, TSN app, and Tennis Channel Plus.
| Match | Coco Gauff vs. Elise Mertens |
| Date | February 18, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not Before 7:00 PM GST Local Time |
| Tournament | Dubai Tennis Championships 2026 |
| Event Type | Women’s Singles (WTA 1000) |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Aviation Club Tennis Centre, Dubai, UAE |
| TV Coverage | Tennis Channel (USA, Spain, India), TSN / TVA (Canada), Sky Sports (UK & Ireland and much of Europe), beIN Sports / DAZN (Middle East, Australia, France, Europe) |
| Live Streaming | Tennis TV (official ATP/WTA streaming platform), beIN CONNECT (Middle East/Asia), ESPN+ (some regions ), streaming platforms of Sky Go / NOW TV, DAZN app, TSN app, Tennis Channel Plus. |
Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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