Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Round of 64, January 21)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka faces qualifier Zhuoxuan Bai in the second round of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne. Sabalenka, the world No. 1, opened with a straight-sets win over wild card Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah, while Bai earned her spot with a three-set win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Sabalenka’s form and resume explain the pricing. She began her 2026 season by successfully defending her title, beating Marta Kostyuk in straight sets. While her 2025 season was the most complete of her career, with titles in Brisbane, Miami, Madrid, and the US Open, plus a long list of finals across the events. Stat-wise (2025), she’s built to crush mismatches quickly with 302 aces in 89 matches, 65.2% first-serve points won, 44.8% return points won, and a strong 46.5% break-point conversion.

An error-strewn Aryna Sabalenka made a stodgy start to her Australian Open title charge in a 6-4, 6-1 win over French wildcard Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah on Sunday.

READ MORE: https://t.co/bOOCrVXXrZ pic.twitter.com/TPRQDYUcvj
— INQUIRER Sports (@INQUIRERSports) January 20, 2026

Bai comes in as world No. 702 (career-high No. 83). However, from August 2024 to October 2025, she had a long hiatus due to lower back and ankle injuries. Plus, she hasn’t established WTA or Challenger title-winning consistency yet (though she has 12 ITF singles titles). Against Sabalenka’s first-strike power and elite return pressure, the handicap market becomes more relevant than the moneyline.

For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.

Tournament & Round: Australian Open, Second Round (R64)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: January 21, Not before 11:30 AM AEDT Local Time
Court: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Australia

Best Bet: Aryna Sabalenka -7.5 Games (-130, FanDuel)

Book: Best price at FanDuel

Our best bet for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai is Aryna Sabalenka -7.5 Games (-130, FanDuel).

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai Odds

Given below are the latest odds for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.

Market	FanDuel	BetMGM
Moneyline	Sabalenka -8000 / Bai +2200	Sabalenka -10000 / Bai +1600
Game Handicap	Sabalenka -7.5 -130 / Bai +7.5 -104	Sabalenka -7.5 -125 / Bai +7.5 -105
Total Games	Over 16.5 -118 / Under 16.5 -112	Over 16.5 -111 / Under 16.5 -114
Set Betting	Sabalenka 2-0 -800 / Bai 2-0 +4500	Sabalenka 2-0 -1200 / Bai 2-0 +3300
Total Sets	Over 2.5 +520 / Under 2.5 -1000	Over 2.5 +650 / Under 2.5 -1200

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai Prediction & Picks

Our Pick: Aryna Sabalenka -7.5 Games (-130, FanDuel).

The moneyline is completely inefficient at -8000, and even the 2-0 set market at -800 is paying you very little for the most likely outcome. The handicap is the cleanest price-to-probability tradeoff here because Sabalenka is a top-tier power player with elite return metrics against a qualifier ranked outside the top 700, coming off a long injury hiatus.

The main reason the -7.5 games line is attractive is that Sabalenka’s 2025 stats support fast separation in both phases. She combines first-strike serve pressure (302 aces) with a legitimately dominant return game (44.8% return points won). She also converts at a high rate when she gets chances (46.5% break conversion). Simply put, in a best-of-three, Sabalenka’s ability to quickly stack breaks makes -7.5 a more efficient entry than chasing a massive price on the straight-set win.

Aryna Sabalenka Recent Form

Cincinnati – Quarterfinal
US Open – Title
Wuhan – Semifinal –
WTA Finals – Final
Brisbane – Title

Aryna Sabalenka is the 2026 #BrisbaneInternational Women's Singles Champion 🏆 pic.twitter.com/WYZIC9AH9R
— Brisbane International (@BrisbaneTennis) January 11, 2026

Zhuoxuan Bai Recent Form

Challenger Jinan – R32
Jiangxi – Quarterfinal

#AustralianOpen2026

🇨🇳 Chinese qualifier Bai Zhuoxuan pulls off a stunning upset, edging former world No.11 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (12-10) 👏🔥

Next challenge: World No.1 Aryna #Sabalenka on Rod Laver Arena 🌟💥#tennis pic.twitter.com/V3BTO5BfMv
— CGTN Sports Scene (@CGTNSportsScene) January 19, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Aryna Sabalenka and Zhuoxuan Bai do not have a head-to-head record yet.

Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop

Projection: Aryna Sabalenka wins in straight sets.

Higher Variance Set Prop: Under 16.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher-variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option.

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How can I watch Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai on TV and live stream?

TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.

Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.

Match	Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zhuoxuan Bai
Date	January 21, 2026
Start Time	Not before 11:30 AM AEDT
Tournament	Australian Open 2026
Event Type	Women’s Singles (Grand Slam)
Surface	Outdoor Hard Court
Court	Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
TV Coverage	ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN/RDS (Canada), 9NOW
Live Streaming	ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select)

Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.