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Alexander Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Tenth seed Alexander Bublik opens his 2026 Australian Open campaign against Jenson Brooksby in a first-round matchup that’s priced like a mismatch. Bublik arrives in Melbourne with real momentum after winning the Hong Kong title. Plus, his 2025 season ended with four titles (Halle, Basel, Kitzbuhel, and Hangzhou), including a semifinal in Paris and a quarterfinal in Vienna.
As per his stats, Bublik’s serve-driven game is built to hold up on hard courts. His 2025 numbers reflect that with 674 aces, 79% first-serve points won, and a respectable 39% break-point conversion. That combination explains why the market is comfortable making him a heavy favorite, especially against an opponent who isn’t bringing recent match reps into the new season.
Brooksby, ranked No. 48, starts his 2026 season here. His 2025 baseline stats show a player who can compete in longer exchanges (30% first-serve return points won) and convert chances (41% break-point conversion), but his serving output is clearly lighter (117 aces, 68% first-serve points won). Basically, Bublik is dominant, but if Brooksby extends sets through return pressure, the match can get longer than the favorite’s price suggests.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Alexander Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Alexander Bublik -5.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)
Book: Best price at FanDuel
Our best bet for Alexander Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby is Alexander Bublik -5.5 Games (-126, FanDuel).
Given below are the latest odds for Alexander Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | Bublik -430 / Brooksby +340 | Bublik -400 / Brooksby +290 |
| Game Handicap | Bublik -5.5 -126 / Brooksby +5.5 -106 | Bublik -5.5 -118 / Brooksby +5.5 -111 |
| Total Games | Over 35.5 -120 / Under 35.5 -110 | Over 36.5 -118 / Under 36.5 -111 |
| Set Betting | Bublik 3-0 +140 / Brooksby 3-0 +1000 | Bublik 3-0 +140 / Brooksby 3-0 +1200 |
| Total Sets | Over 3.5 -136 / Under 3.5 +104 | Over 3.5 -233 / Under 3.5 +110 |
Our Pick: Alexander Bublik -5.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)
The moneyline is correctly heavy, but it’s not efficient. At -430, you’re paying for a result that can still get messy in a best-of-five if Bublik loses focus for a set. That’s why the better angle is to target coverage through margin, not just raw win probability.
Bublik’s 2025 serving baseline is elite (79% first-serve points won + 674 aces) and so are Brooksby’s return stats (30% first-serve return points won). But he’s entering the season cold, and his serve profile (68% first-serve points won, 117 aces) makes it harder to survive extended matches. If Bublik plays even close to his median level, a -5.5 games line gives you a stronger price-to-edge ratio than laying the moneyline.
Brooksby leads the head-to-head 1-0, winning in Canada four years ago in straight sets. However, this matters in a limited way because of the gap and improvement of players since then.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jenson Brooksby | Canada | Round of 64 | 6-2, 6-3 |
Projection: Alexander Bublik wins in four sets.
Higher Variance Set Prop: Alexander Bublik 3-0 (+140, FanDuel). However, due to this being a higher-variance bet, it is best to use this as a secondary option and not the primary one.
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.
| Match | Alexander Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby |
| Date | January 18, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not before 7:00 PM AEDT |
| Tournament | Australian Open 2026 |
| Event Type | Men’s Singles (Grand Slam) |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia |
| TV Coverage | ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN/RDS (Canada), 9NOW |
| Live Streaming | ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select) |
Mandatory Image Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
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