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Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Third seed Alexander Bublik faces Jan-Lennard Struff in the second round of the Rotterdam Open (2026), an indoor hard-court event. Bublik arrives after a statement comeback win over Hubert Hurkacz featuring two tiebreaks, while Struff handled qualifier Hugo Grenier in straight sets to open his campaign.
This is a clear top-10 vs. outside-top-80 matchup. Bublik is world No. 10, coming off a title in Hong Kong to start 2026 and a career-best fourth-round run at the Australian Open. His 2025 season included multiple titles (Halle, Basel, Kitzbuhel, Hangzhou) and deep Masters and Slam runs. This is backed by elite serve production with 674 aces, 79% first-serve points won, and a 39% break-point conversion rate. Stats and the run speak for themselves.
Struff, now ranked No. 82, has struggled for consistency at tour level. Outside of a Challenger title at the All In Open and a few isolated quarterfinals in 2025, early exits have been the norm. His serve remains a weapon (329 aces, 75% first-serve points won), but the return numbers and break conversion (30%) lag behind Bublik’s. The concern is simple with Bublik’s serve-led edge versus Struff’s historical head-to-head success, with the market pricing dominance but leaving room for volatility.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Sets (-192, BetMGM)
Book: Best price at BetMGM
Our best bet for Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff is Under 2.5 Sets (-192, BetMGM).
Given below are the latest odds for Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | Bublik -300 / Struff +225 | Bublik -286 / Struff +225 |
| Game Handicap | Bublik -3.5 +100 / Struff +3.5 -134 | Bublik -3.5 +100 / Struff +3.5 -133 |
| Total Games (22.5) | Over -116 / Under -116 | Over -125 / Under -105 |
| Set Betting | Bublik 2-0 -105 / Struff 2-0 +460 | Bublik 2-0 -105 / Struff 2-0 +500 |
| Total Sets (2.5) | Over +144 / Under -196 | Over +140 / Under -192 |
Our Pick: Under 2.5 Sets (-192, BetMGM)
The market correctly installs Bublik as a heavy favorite based on ranking gap, recent form, and serve dominance indoors. His 79% first-serve points won and superior break-point efficiency create a consistent edge in short formats, especially against opponents who rely on holding serve without generating sustained return pressure.
That’s why the Under 2.5 Sets stands out as the most efficient primary angle. While Bublik’s matches can drift toward tiebreaks, his ability to win them reduces the likelihood of a full three-set grind. Struff’s wins in this matchup historically came with clean set control, but those results span different surfaces and peak-form periods.
Jan-Lennard Struff has the lead 3-1 in his head-to-head over Alexander Bublik. Three of Struff’s wins came on slower or outdoor surfaces, while Bublik’s lone victory was indoors at Halle in 2023, the most surface-relevant data point here. Notably, Bublik needed three sets to win, while Struff’s victories were all straight sets.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Jan-Lennard Struff | Roland Garros | Round of 64 | 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 |
| 2023 | Alexander Bublik | Halle | Round of 16 | 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3 |
| 2021 | Jan-Lennard Struff | St. Petersburg | Round of 16 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2018 | Jan-Lennard Struff | Budapest | Round of 16 | 6-1, 6-4 |
Projection: Alexander Bublik wins in straight sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Alexander Bublik 2-0 (-105, Fanduel). Given that this is a higher risk, it is recommended to use this as a secondary angle.
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Rotterdam Open include Tennis Channel (US), TSN / RDS (Canada), beIN Sports (Middle East/Asia), Sky UK/Ireland (UK), ESPN International (Latin America), and Sport TV (Portugal).
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Live streaming is available on ATP TV (the official ATP streaming platform) and regional broadcasters’ own streaming platforms.
| Match | Alexander Bublik vs. Jan-Lennard Struff |
| Date | February 13, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not Before 1:00 AM CET Local Time |
| Tournament | Rotterdam Open 2026 |
| Event Type | Men’s Singles (ATP 500) |
| Surface | Indoor Hard Court |
| Court | Rotterdam Ahoy, Rotterdam, Netherlands |
| TV Coverage | Tennis Channel (US), TSN / RDS (Canada), beIN Sports (Middle East/Asia), Sky UK/Ireland (UK), ESPN International (Latin America), Sport TV (Portugal). |
| Live Streaming | Tennis TV (official ATP streaming platform) and streaming platforms of covering channels. |
Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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