Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Round of 16, January 25)

Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch

Sixth seed Alex de Minaur faces 10th seed Alexander Bublik in the fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne, with de Minaur priced as the favorite. The Aussie opened his campaign with a straight-sets win over lucky loser Mackenzie McDonald, then had to dig out a comeback win against Hamad Medjedovic. He tightened up again with a straight-sets victory over 29th seed Frances Tiafoe.

Bublik, however, arrives in this spot in far cleaner form through the draw. He’s been razor sharp all week, recording straight-set wins over Jenson Brooksby, Marton Fucsovics, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry. That matters for totals and set markets, because Bublik’s game is heavily serve-led. When he’s seeing the ball well, he can keep sets on a narrow margin even against elite defenders.

Consistent king 👑

Alex de Minaur is back in the second week after defeating Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 6-4, 7-5. 💪#AO26 pic.twitter.com/kT5tX9SxTd
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) January 23, 2026

Statistically, de Minaur’s 2025 stats explain why the market still leans his way, with 73% first-serve points won paired with an elite 32% first-serve return points won. Plus 43% breakpoint conversion across 597 opportunities. But Bublik’s ceiling is obvious too, coming off a Hong Kong title and posting 674 aces with 79% first-serve points won in 2025. This dynamic often pushes value toward games and set volume rather than paying a premium on the moneyline.

For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.

Tournament & Round: Australian Open, Fourth Round (R16)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Five Sets
Date & Start Time: January 25, Not before 7:00 PM AEDT Local Time
Court: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Australia

Best Bet: Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel)

Book: Best price at FanDuel

Our best bet for Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik is Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel).

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Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Odds

Given below are the latest odds for Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.

Market	FanDuel	BetMGM
Moneyline	de Minaur -166 / Bublik +138	de Minaur -175 / Bublik +135
Game Handicap	de Minaur -2.5 -120 / Bublik +2.5 -110	de Minaur -2.5 -114 / Bublik +2.5 -114
Total Games	Over 39.5 -112 / Under 39.5 -118	Over 39.5 -118 / Under 39.5 -110
Set Betting	de Minaur 3-0 +260 / Bublik 3-0 +550	de Minaur 3-0 +270 / Bublik 3-0 +575
Total Sets	Over 3.5 -182 / Under 3.5 +134	Over 3.5 -200 / Under 3.5 +160

Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction & Picks

Our Pick: Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel).

The market has de Minaur favored at -166, which makes sense if you believe his return quality consistently breaks down Bublik’s serve over a long match. De Minaur’s 2025 return stat (32% first-serve return points won) is elite, and it gives him the best serve-neutralizing you can ask for.

But Bublik’s serve stats are so extreme (674 aces, 79% first-serve points won in 2025) that this still projects as a high-variance match environment. Even if de Minaur is the cleaner baseline player, Bublik’s ability to protect service games increases the probability of at least one extended set. That’s why the best price efficiency sits with Over 39.5 Games (-112).

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Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Beijing – Semifinal
Shanghai Masters – Quarterfinal
Vienna – Semifinal
Paris Masters – Quarterfinal
ATP Finals – Group Stage

Alex de Minaur wins a FANTASTIC point against Frances Tiafoe at the Australian Open

One minute he’s at the back of the court defending

You blink… and he’s back in the point finishing it off at the net

A true master of turning defense to attack

🇦🇺😮‍💨
pic.twitter.com/uz9oGISEfk
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) January 23, 2026

Alexander Bublik Recent Form

Shanghai Masters – R64
Vienna – Quarterfinal
Paris Masters – Semifinal
Moselle – R16
Hong Kong – Title

Alexander Bublik becomes the first man representing Kazakhstan to reach the Round of 16 of all 4 Grand Slam singles events.

This guy has become an absolute beast.

🇰🇿🩵 pic.twitter.com/9Z42XhYG1i
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) January 23, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Alex de Minaur had the lead 3-2 in his head-to-head over Alexander Bublik. However, in the more recent matchups, Bublik defeated the Aussie in five sets at Roland Garros 2025, and also won their Paris 2025 meeting in three sets. De Minaur took multiple earlier matchups, including Indian Wells 2024, plus two 2021 wins.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Score
2025	Alexander Bublik	Paris	Quarterfinal	6-7(5), 6-4, 7-5
2025	Alexander Bublik	Roland Garros	Round of 64	2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2
2024	Alex de Minaur	Indian Wells	Round of 32	7-5, 6-0
2021	Alex de Minaur	Barcelona	Round of 32	7-6(3), 6-2
2021	Alex de Minaur	Antalya	Final	2-0, Ret.

Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop

Projection: Alex de Minaur wins in four sets.

Higher Variance Set Bet: Over 3.5 Total Sets (-182, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option.

How can I watch Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik on TV and live stream?

TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.

Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.

Match	Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik
Date	January 25, 2026
Start Time	Not before 7:00 PM AEDT
Tournament	Australian Open 2026
Event Type	Men’s Singles (Grand Slam)
Surface	Outdoor Hard Court
Court	Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
TV Coverage	ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN/RDS (Canada), 9NOW
Live Streaming	ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select)

Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.