The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Houston Texans for an exciting AFC Wild Card round matchup. This matchup between Steelers vs Texans features two teams from AFC North and AFC South, battling, to earn a spot in the divisional round of the playoffs.
The Steelers had a difficult road to the playoffs and come into the postseason with a 10-7 record, previously defeating the Baltimore Ravens with a late game heroic effort from their QB Aaron Rodgers, whose touchdown pass sealed their spot in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Texans come into the postseason with a 12-5 record and a 9-game winning streak, thanks to their outstanding defense and improved offense as the regular season progressed. It’s the No.4 seed at AFC clashing against the No.5 seed, in this win-or-go-home playoff matchup.
Our best bet for the Steelers vs Texans is Aaron Rodgers under 1.5 passing TDs (-225). (Sourced from BetMGM)
Our best bet for the Steelers vs Texans game is Aaron Rodgers under 1.5 passing touchdowns. We believe this pick has value as the Steelers are going to face the best defense in the NFL statistically as the Texans rank No.1 in total defense and 6th in passing defense, allowing only 183.5 passing yards per game. They are 2nd overall in scoring defense allowing only 17.4 points per game, which will certainly make life harder for Aaron Rodgers.
The Steelers rank 22nd in passing offense this season and 15th in scoring, which is not going to help as the Texans have elite pass rushers and defense, which is one of the reasons why they come into this game with a 9-game winning streak. Rodgers had 24 passing TDs in the regular season, and only had 6 games above 1.5 passing touchdowns, staying under 1.5 TDs in majority of the games, especially going against elite defenses.
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Same-Game Parlay Picks for Steelers vs Texans
This is our pick for a 3-leg same game parlay for the Steelers vs Texans Wild Card game (Sourced from BetMGM).
C.J. Stroud under 1.5 passing TDs is a great bet in the Steelers vs Texans wild card game because Pittsburgh boasts the NFL’s 7th best red-zone defense at 50.9% and elite pass rush, which could put a stop to Houston’s passing offense. Stroud averages only 1.3 touchdowns per game this season and only had 5 games beyond 1.5 touchdowns in 14 games he played in, making this a great bet.
Nico Collins over 4.5 receptions made:
Nico Collins over 4.5 receptions is a great bet in the Steelers vs Texans wild card game because the Texans’ WR1 posted 71 catches on 120 targets in 15 regular-season games (averaging 4.73 receptions per game) in 2025, emerging as C.J. Stroud’s clear top target after Stefon Diggs’ departure. In high-stakes matchups, Collins thrives with consistent volume (at least 3 catches every game) and strong playoff history (23 catches in 4 career postseason games). Facing Pittsburgh’s solid but vulnerable secondary, expect Stroud to feed his go-to playmaker early and often for steady targets and catches.
C.J. Stroud over 32.5 passing attempts:
C.J. Stroud over 32.5 passing attempts is a great bet in the Steelers vs Texans wild card game because the Texans QB averaged 30.2 passing attempts per game over those 14 games. In the last six games he had three games over 31 passing attempts to close the 2025 regular season (35 attempts in 2 games). Facing Pittsburgh’s pass defense (29th in key metrics) and strong run defense (allowing league-low rushing yards lately), Houston must air it out more to sustain drives. Thus, Stroud potentially crossing 32.5 passing attempts.
Steelers vs Texans Game Predictions by Market
Moneyline Prediction
The moneyline for this game sits in the favor of the Texans at (-160) despite being an away team. While the Steelers are the (+135) underdogs. This is largely due to Texans’ 9-game win-streak and their No.1 ranked total defense, with very little flaws. While their offense is mediocre ranking 18th in total offense, their defense does the heavy lifting in majority of the games. We are sticking with the Texans to win the game, especially since the Steelers just barely got into the playoffs, while the Texans practically looked unstoppable by the end of the regular season.
Spread Prediction
The Texans are a slight favorite with a -3 spread over the Steelers. The Steelers are 5-3 record against the spread at home, while the Texans are 4-4 against the spread on the road this season. Both teams have similar ATS records but the Steelers have a slightly better record. We expect the game to be close with a narrow margin victory for the Texans.
Over/Under (Total) Prediction
The over/under for the total points in the Steelers vs Texans is set at 38.5. The average points per game surrendered by both the Steelers and the Texans is at 20.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ offense sits at 25th overall this season while the Texans sit at 18th.
Both teams can struggle offensively at times and with stout run defenses on both ends, expect a low-scoring battle with a battle that will mostly likely be played through volume passing with short and precise drives. Hence, we will take the under in this wild card matchup.
Steelers vs Texans Odds
Here, we take a look at the latest Steelers vs Texans odds from a couple of our favorite sportsbooks including, Fandueland BetMGM.
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Trends to Know for Steelers vs Texans
The Texans are 9-8 against the spread this season.
The Steelers are 9-7-1 against the spread this season.
The Under is 11-6 in the Texans’ games this season.
The Over is 9-7-1 in the Steelers’ games this season.
The Texans are 4-4 against the spread on the road this season.
The Steelers are 5-3 against the spread at home this season.
Latest Injuries for Steelers vs Texans
The Pittsburgh Steelers are mostly healthy for this wildcard round, which is a very good sign for them. The only player that will not play against the Texans is DT Isaiahh Loudermilk, who is out for the game with an ankle injury.
Meanwhile, the Texans have RB Jawhar Jordan (ankle) and DB Ajani Carter (hamstring), out for the game. And SAF Jaylen Reed (forearm) is listed as questionable for the wild card round contest.
Weather Report for Steelers vs Texans
The weather for Monday night’s wild card playoff game at Acrisure Stadium between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans will feature temperatures in the low 30s at kickoff, partly could skies, and light southwest winds. There is a low chance of precipitation, with dry conditions expected through the evening. The cold January air may impact grip and passing timing, especially for the dome-based Texans.
What time is the Steelers vs Texans Wild Card Game?
The Wild Card game between the Steelers and the Texans is slated for a primetime slot on Monday, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Where is the Steelers vs Texans game being played?
The Steelers are set to host the Texans live from Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, home of the Steelers.
How can I watch the Steelers taking on the Texans?
The game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans will be available on ABC/ESPN or ESPN2. With the game’s live stream available at Fubo, or NFL+.
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
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