Patrick Surtain II emerges as NFL DPOY favorite, with Sean Payton backing his case

Surtain shines as DPOY favorite

Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II is now the betting favorite to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award. On the same day he secured his third straight Pro Bowl selection, Surtain spoke about the recognition, which he considers a milestone but not his ultimate goal.

“It’s pretty special for sure,” Surtain said. “Just the work I put in, obviously it was a goal that I had in mind, but that’s not my main goal. My main goal is to continue to be the best version of myself to help this team win. [Help them] get to that next step, which is playoffs and hopefully get to that Super Bowl run.”

Surtain’s dominance by the numbers

Surtain has redefined defensive excellence for cornerbacks this season. According to Next Gen Stats, he has allowed just 33 catches for 279 yards across 15 games, with quarterbacks posting a mere 56 passer rating when targeting him. His performance includes four interceptions, highlighted by a 100-yard pick-six against the Raiders in Week 5.

This is new & interesting.

For the first time all year, Patrick Surtain is now the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year on @FDSportsbook ! 👀

(Only 2 cornerbacks have won the award in the last 30 seasons..Stephon Gilmore & Charles Woodson). So.. LFG. pic.twitter.com/HDj62EnnHb
— Kay Adams (@heykayadams) January 3, 2025

For context, the worst passer rating by any quarterback with more than 200 attempts this season is Anthony Richardson’s 61.6. When quarterbacks throw at Surtain, they essentially become the league’s least effective passers.

In advanced metrics, Surtain’s coverage EPA (expected points added) sits at -25.6—the best among all NFL cornerbacks with at least 400 snaps. Pro Football Focus also rates him as the top cornerback of the season, further solidifying his DPOY case.

Surtain’s Pro Bowl and All-Pro case

Surtain’s consistent performance earned him a third consecutive Pro Bowl nod, and he’s on track for his second All-Pro selection. He signed a four-year, $96 million extension in the offseason, a contract that reflects his status as the cornerstone of the Broncos’ defense. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph praised Surtain’s approach this season: “Pat is the standard. Every game, he has been focused on playing his best ball. Whoever he went against this year, he was trying to dominate that player.”

DPOY odds: A two-man race

The DPOY race has narrowed to two main contenders—Surtain and Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt. BetMGM now lists Surtain as the heavy favorite at -210, ahead of Watt’s +175. Historically, edge rushers have dominated the award, with Myles Garrett winning in 2023 and Stephon Gilmore being the last cornerback to claim the title in 2019. However, Surtain’s remarkable coverage skills make him a standout in a field often measured by sack totals.

Sean Payton makes the case

Broncos head coach Sean Payton didn’t mince words when advocating for Surtain’s DPOY candidacy. “It’s an easy case to make,” Payton said. “Sometimes it’s a more difficult case to make, but certainly he’s deserving of that type of award. He’s that good.”

🗣️ Sean Payton

Cornerback Patrick Surtain II is considered for Defensive Player of the Year. His head coach understands why:

"When you look at the receivers he's defended, and the impact he's had for us, and how we played defensively, and all those other things.. It's an easy… pic.twitter.com/wiKU0GKxjJ
— Guerilla Sports (@guerillasports_) January 3, 2025

Payton’s endorsement aligns with a season where Surtain not only leads the Broncos’ secondary but has also propelled the team to playoff contention. Denver enters Week 18 needing a win against the Kansas City Chiefs to secure the AFC’s final postseason spot.

Surtain in rare company

If he wins, Surtain would become just the seventh cornerback to claim the DPOY honor. Previous winners include Mel Blount (1975), Lester Hayes (1980), Rod Woodson (1993), Deion Sanders (1994), Charles Woodson (2009), and Stephon Gilmore (2019). For cornerbacks, success often comes with limited tangible stats, as elite players like Surtain often force quarterbacks to avoid throwing their way.

Despite these challenges, Surtain’s performances, including a shutdown of Bengals star receiver Ja’Marr Chase (three catches for 27 yards in Week 15), have bolstered his case. While sacks often steal headlines, Surtain’s ability to neutralize top receivers has made him indispensable for Denver’s defense.

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Natasha Bose

I write about sports because, well, it brings in the big bucks! I’m not some lifelong analyst or stats guru, truth being told, you’ve probably never heard of me!—I just know how to research, write, and make things sound good. That’s the job!
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