Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies First Round Game 1 Predictions, Odds, Bets & Stats – 04/20/2025

On Sunday, 04/20, the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will host the Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) in Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA Playoffs. The Thunder reigned as the first seed in the West, while the Grizzlies earned the 8th seed during the play-in tournament. Will the underdog Grizzlies stand any chance against the relentless Thunder? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.

Where to Watch Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies

Time: 12:00 PM (CT)
Venue: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Where to watch: This game can be viewed on the NBA League Pass.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Match Preview

Teams with contrasting journeys

Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder finished with the fifth-best record in the league’s history. They didn’t lose more than two games in a row throughout the season, and that too only on a couple of instances. They had a phenomenal 36-12 record against teams with +.500 records while finishing with a superb 32-8 away from home record.

The Thunder had a +/- rating of 12.8, second best in the NBA history. They are marching in the postseason as the favorites to win the West at least.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies had an underwhelming second half of the season. They had a strong 35-16 record by the first week of February, and were in contention to nab at least the second seed. However, things went downhill fast.

They finished with an abysmal 13-18 spell and fell to the eighth seed. The Grizzlies then lost the seventh seed play-in match against the Golden State Warriors. But used the reprieve to fend off the short-handed Dallas Mavericks. Not a grand entry to the playoffs, eh?

Match-ups: The Thunder has depth galore, Grizzlies need a boost

The marquee match-up is between the Thunder’s PG and MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Grizzlies’ ace Ja Morant. SGA is the favorite to win this match-up by a commanding margin. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have a slight size disadvantage with the guard duo of 6’1” Scotty Pippen Jr. and 6’5” Desmond Bane going up against 6’4” Luguentz Dort and 6’5” Jalen Williams.

Offensively, Bane and Pippen Jr can go toe-to-toe, but they can have huge defensive troubles. The frontline match-up is interesting. Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey vs Thunder’s Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. It can be a decisive one too. Jackson Jr. is a better scorer than Holmgren, while Edey is a marginally better rebounder than Hartenstein.

But as a duo, the Thunder’s PF and C can be a handful to deal with on defense. At any rate, Thunder’s bench has many dependable characters like Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Jaylin Williams. Same can’t be said about the Memphis bench outside of Santi Aldama.

Thunder Expected Starting Lineup

PG: Shai GIlgeous-Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | PF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein

Key bench players: SG: Aaron Wiggins, SF: Jaylin Williams, SG: Casson Wallace, PG: Alex Caruso.

Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report

Grizzlies Expected Starting Lineup

PG: Scotty Pippen Jr. | PG: Ja Morant | SG: Desmond Bane | PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. | C: Zach Edey

Key bench players: PF: Santi Aldama, SG: John Konchar

Injuries/Updates: Jaylen Wells is OUT for the playoffs.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Total Over/Under Prediction

The Golden State Warriors exposed the Memphis Grizzlies’ defense in the play-in tournament (121 points). This has been the story of the Memphis season. They do have the tools to score in a similar range, but the Thunder boasts one of the best defenses in the league. They regularly limit even high-scoring teams under 110, and there can be similar returns here, too. Meanwhile, they are likely to cross the 120 mark.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Points: Over 121.5 for +110 at BetMGM
Total: Over 226.5 for -110 at BetMGM

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Player Props Predictions- Projected Top Bets & Odds

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score over 32.5 points: SGA led the league with 32.7 points per game, upping the ante against the Grizzlies. He put up 36.25 PPG against them, and I expect him to replicate such numbers.

Ja Morant to be held under 21.5 points: Morant scored 22 points in each play-in tournament game. He is dealing with a serious right ankle injury, limiting his output. Thus, I believe he will be contained below 20 here.

Chet Holmgren to score over 17.5 points: The Thunder big man finished with 15 PPG this season. He scored just 4 points in his only battle against Memphis this season, but I believe he will be in the 18-21 range here.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies Match Prediction

The Thunder enters as the overwhelming favorites here. Meanwhile, Memphis is in further trouble due to Morant’s injury troubles. Their defense has too many holes, and the Thunder knows how to make them pay for it. Thus, it won’t be a surprise if they end up with a 12+ points win here. This may set the template for the rest of the series as OKC will be expected to sweep.

Safe Spread Pick: Grizzlies -12.5 for -110 at BetMGM

Photo Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Shubham Singh

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Hi, I am Shubham. I am currently an NBA Predictions Writer on The Playoffs. I enjoy this job because it helps keep me in the loop about the game I love while fulfilling the pleasure I derive from stats. I got into NBA writing through social media interactions in the mid-2010s as I shared my takes on young talents such as D’Angelo Russell. I hope you enjoy reading my pieces as much as Dennis Rodman loved rebounding the basketball!