Newcastle United will host Qarabag FK at St James’ Park in the UEFA Champions League playoff second leg on Tuesday, February 24, 2026. The tie is effectively decided after the Magpies ruthlessly put six past the Azerbaijan side in the first leg. Eddie Howe’s side are carrying a five-goal aggregate cushion into what is, in practical terms, a formality.
However, the match will holds some for the visiting side who will look to end their journey with some dignity or looking for some miracle. Qarabag are coming into this match with defensive concerns and a poor record against English opposition in the past. Whereas, Newcastle will seek to restore home confidence after recent domestic setbacks.
You can find more of our soccer predictions on our main picks hub. Here’s how we’re betting Newcastle United vs Qarabag tonight, including our Best Bet, a Same-Game Parlay, and key trends to know.
Newcastle United vs Qarabag Match Details
Competition: Champions League
Date & kickoff: Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – 3:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM GT
Venue: St. James Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England
Expected XIs: Newcastle United 4-3-3 vs Qarabag 5-2-3
Best Bet for Newcastle United vs Qarabag
Our best bet for Newcastle United vs Qarabag is Anthony Gordon to Score or Assist at -275 (BetMGM) / -290 (FanDuel).
Gordon put four past Qarabag goalkeeper in the first leg of this play-off. That brought his Champions League tally this season to double digits (10). Across Newcastle’s last 10 matches in all competitions, he has recorded six goals and three assists. He’s averaging 0.74 xG+xA per 90 minutes in Europe.
His shot volume has also been elite for a wide forward. He has made 3.8 attempts per game in UCL fixtures. His progressive carries consistently target the inside-left channel where Qarabag’s defensive line was repeatedly exposed last week. Qarabag have conceded multiple goals in each of their six Champions League matches this campaign.
They’ve allowed an average xGA above 2.0 per game. With centre-back Bahlul Mustafazada sidelined and structural instability evident, Gordon’s direct running and penalty-box instincts say that the chances of him contributing to the scoreline again in this leg is high.
Newcastle United vs Qarabag Prediction
Our pick: Newcastle United to Win at -625 (BetMGM) / -800 (FanDuel)
Newcastle generated over 3.5 xG in the first leg while limiting Qarabag to minimal high-quality opportunities outside counterattacks. Over their last 10 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have produced 1.78 xG per match despite rotating personnel. At home in European competition this season, they have posted two wins and a draw prior to their recent slips in the league.
They’ve allowed 2+ goals in five of the last six home games across competitions at home. But these defensive concessions at St James’ Park are contextual. Several of them came against elite Premier League opposition pressing at high intensity. Qarabag, by contrast, have lost nine of their 10 historical matches against English clubs.
They’ve registered five away defeats by an aggregate score of 19-1. They’ve also let in 12 goals conceded in their last two Champions League matches. Considering the five-goal aggregate cushion, Newcastle’s squad depth, and Qarabag’s defensive frailties, another win for the Magpies seems plausible.
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Same-Game Parlay (Bet Builder) for Newcastle United vs Qarabag
Bet $100 to Win $234.06 (FanDuel) Total Goals Over 2.5 (-400) + BTTS: No (-108) + Anthony Gordon to Score or Assist (-280)
Newcastle’s last 10 matches have averaged 3.1 total goals. Qarabag have conceded six goals in back-to-back Champions League fixtures and allowed multiple goals in all six European games this term. Their away defensive record against English opposition doesn’t inspire any confidence either. BTTS: No stems from these factors and Newcastle’s capacity to manage tempo when defending such a lead.
Gordon’s inclusion capitalizes on his central attacking role for the Magpies so far. He has been directly involved in 43% of Newcastle’s Champions League goals this season. Considering his high output, high Newcastle shot volume, Qarabag defensive vulnerability, and Gordon’s elite contribution rate, all three bets of the parlay make sense.
Newcastle are unlikely to retreat entirely despite aggregate comfort. Rotation players will need pushing for minutes should maintain attacking intensity. Qarabag, needing an improbable comeback, may commit bodies forward early, increasing transitional exposure.
Over 2.5 goals aligns with recent scoring data from both sides’ European outings. BTTS: No stems from Qarabag’s inefficiency against structured English back lines. Gordon remains the primary attacking conduit. He’s averaging over four touches in the opposition penalty area per Champions League match.
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Over 2.5: -375 / Under 2.5: +250 Over 3.5: -145 / Under 3.5: +105
Over 2.5: -400 / Under 2.5: +300 Over 3.5: -150 / Under 3.5: +122
BTTS
Yes: -110 / No: -130
Yes: -118 / No: -108
Asian Handicap
Newcastle United -1.25: -400 / -1.50: -286 Qarabag +1.25: +290
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Draw No Bet
Newcastle United: -2500 Qarabag: +950
Newcastle United: -2300 Qarabag: +1380
Double Chance
Newcastle United or Draw: -3000 Qarabag or Draw: +425
Newcastle United or Draw: -3000 Qarabag or Draw: +480
Trends to Know for Newcastle United vs Qarabag
Head-to-Head: Qarabag have won each of the last nine Champions League meetings with Newcastle United and nine of their last 11 away trips to Newcastle United.
Bottom-of-Table Dominance: The Gunners have won 14 straight Champions League games against relegation-zone teams, outscoring them 40-4.
Newcastle United Home Struggles: 10 defeats in 13 home matches this season, one of the poorest home records in the division.
Qarabag Form: One defeat in their last 11 Champions League games (W7 D3), maintaining title momentum despite occasional away draws.
Scoring Streak: Qarabag have scored in each of their last 36 meetings with Newcastle United across all competitions, demonstrating consistent attacking superiority.
Latest Injuries & Lineup News for Newcastle United vs Qarabag
In soccer, injuries and rotations can drastically alter how a match plays out, especially when it comes to BTTS, totals, and goalscorer markets. Navigating through a few key injuries in this clash, both coaches will look to lineup their strongest XI. Here are the players who are either doubtful or are set to miss out:
Team
Player
Status
Notes
Newcastle United
Malick Thiaw
Out
Suspension
Newcastle United
Bruno Guimaraes
Out
Thigh
Newcastle United
Emil Krafth
Out
Knee
Newcastle United
Fabian Schar
Out
Ankle
Newcastle United
Tino Livramento
Out
Thigh
Newcastle United
Lewis Miley
Out
Thigh
Newcastle United
Sven Botman
Doubtful
Back
Newcastle United
Yoane Wissa
Doubtful
Knock
Qarabag
Bahlul Mustafazada
Out
Adductor
Reminder: Always check confirmed lineups 60–75 minutes before kickoff, especially for goalscorer and BTTS markets.
How to watch – quick Q&A
What time is Newcastle United vs Qarabag?
Newcastle United vs Qarabag kicks off at 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 24, 2026 (8:00 PM local UK time).
Where is the match being played?
The match will be played at the St. James Park in Newcastle upon Tyne, England.
How can I watch on TV / stream?
Broadcast rights vary by territory. In the US, the Champions League can be telecast on Telemundo and USA Network. The match will be telecast on Sky Sports in the UK. The match will also be available to stream on these broadcasters’ official websites.
Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.
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