On Wednesday, 05/21, the New York Knicks will host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks knocked out the Celtics in six games during the East Semis, while the Pacers made light work of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the previous round (4-1). Can the Knicks fend off the red-hot Pacers in the series opener? Find the total, spread, and player props predictions here.
Prospects of a sizzling series
The Knicks showed their peak during the previous series against the Celtics. They eked out two clutch wins, coming from behind after trailing by 20 points or so. They also pulled off such close wins in the first round against the Detroit Pistons.
Meanwhile, the Pacers have also won a couple of come-from-behind games, but they have enjoyed many more blowouts. The #1 seed Cavs stood no chance against them. These factors imply a close series.
The Knicks will enter as the series favorites (-155 per BetMGM), but write off the Pacers at your peril. They are entering their back-to-back Conference Finals.
A thing that jumps out about the Pacers is their scoring balance. No player is averaging even 20 PPG for the postseason, yet they have been able to produce 120+ points efforts on a high clip.
On the other hand, the Knicks have no dearth of scoring options either. Brunson has led them with 28.8 PPG, but they aren’t just dependent upon him. Karl-Anthony Towns has posted around 20 PPG, too. However, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart have been inconsistent despite contributing 15+ points now and then.
Defensively, the Pacers can be much more challenging to guard as they make over 450+ passes a game, 100+ more than the Celtics. They are equally unstoppable on fastbreak, averaging 23 FB PPG during the playoffs, second only to the OKC Thunder.
On the other hand, the Knicks are much more isolation-oriented, averaging 20 assists per game (12th) compared to the Pacers with 29 APG (1st). However, the limited passing game also meant limited breakaways for the opposition, as the team has allowed just 6.4 steals per game (2nd).
Overall, the Pacers emphasize ball rotation for the best shot, while the Knicks work a lot of individual sets.
Knicks Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jalen Brunson | SG: Josh Hart | SF: OG Anunoby | SF: Mikal Bridges | C: Karl-Anthony Towns
Key bench players: SG: Miles McBride, C: Mitchell Robinson, PG: Cameron Payne.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PF: Obi Toppin, C: Thomas Bryant, PG: T.J. McConnell
Injuries/Updates: Jayson Tatum is OUT for the playoffs.
The Knicks struggled to score during most games against the Boston Celtics, but turned it around with 110+ nights in two of the last three games. Meanwhile, the Pacers have scored 117 or more in most games during the postseason. Overall, there are prospects of a high-scoring series.
But I see things differently, especially for Game 1. I feel this will be a typical grueling ECF battle. The bookmakers have understandably projected 220+ for the match, but I’ll choose “Under”.
Jalen Brunson to score over 28.5 points: JB put up 26.2 PPG in the Eastern Semis, which was down from his 31.5 PPG in the first round. He went “Under” in four of the six games during the Semis, but I see him going past 30 here.
Karl-Anthony Towns to pull down over 11.5 rebounds: KAT has been a menace on the boards in the series. He is averaging 12.8 RPG, which was his regular-season average, too. He has gone “over” in five of the last seven games, and I see him doing it again.
Tyrese Haliburton to be contained under 19.5 points: Haliburton has been inconsistent throughout the playoffs. He averaged 17.4 PPG last series, but went “Under” in just two out of five games. But I see him balancing the act, going “Under” here.
Main pick: Rebounds: Karl-Anthony Towns O 11.5: -125 at FanDuel
The Knicks will be in for a tough fight here. The Pacers are well-rested, and they are playing a great team game. On the other hand, New York can tend to take tougher shots, which results in deep holes. They got away with it against the Celtics, but the Pacers have strong depth that can pick up the slack.
At any rate, I believe the Knicks will come with a lot of fire on the defensive end and shut down the Pacers in the second half. Thus, I expect them to remain true to the favorable spread of -4.5
Betting Lines–
Safe Spread Pick: Spread: Knicks -4.5 for -105 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
nba
