The Patriots are slight favorites against the Texans in their Divisional round clash on Sunday!
The New England Patriots against the Houston Texans is the third Divisional game of the weekend and the first game scheduled for Sunday. This matchup is expected to be a defensive back-and-forth contest with points expected to be at a premium.
First-year head coach of the Patriots, Mike Vrabel, has had a massive impact on the team and has been able to elevate Drake Maye’s game to a new level. Despite not having too many big-name players on the roster, the Patriots are one of the stronger teams on both sides of the ball.
As for Houston, this team has dominated defensively with pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter being the main disrupters. Scoring against this defense will be no easy task.
The table below gives the opening odds for the Patriots vs Texans matchup as per FanDuel.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -2.5 (-118) | -152 | O 40.5 (-110) |
| Houston Texans | +2.5 (-104) | +128 | U 40.5 (-110) |
The opening odds for the Patriots vs Texans Divisional round matchup show that the Patriots are the slight favorite to win the game.
Here are our early picks for the Divisional game between the Patriots and the Texans.
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In this game between the Patriots and the Texans for the Divisional round, we are leaning towards the Patriots to win and cover the spread as per our early prediction. The main reason behind this is the lack of offensive production from the Texans.
Throughout the season, Houston has been extremely dominant on the defensive side of the ball, while offensively, it has lacked the spark. This was also seen in the Wild Card game against the Steelers, where it was the defense that stole the show.
On the other hand, the Patriots are also a solid team defensively, ranking fourth in the league in scoring defense. However, the offense led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye has clicked into place. Furthermore, the home-field advantage at this time of the year is also worth consideration, as the weather is expected to drop to the mid-20s with a chance of snow on game day.
As far as the total points are concerned, we are taking the Under 40.5 in this game mainly because we will have two strong teams on defense. Over the season, the Texans and the Patriots finished top 5 in scoring defense, with Houston allowing just 17.4 points per game, while New England allowed a very respectable 18.8 a game.
It was much of the same in the Wild Card round as the Patriots held the Chargers’ offense to just 3 points, whereas the Texans allowed the Steelers to score only 6. We are expecting a highly competitive defense-oriented game in Foxborough on Sunday.
The early player prop we are leaning towards is Patriots’ quarterback Drake Maye finishing the game with Under 1.5 passing touchdowns. We feel this is a good bet because Maye hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in his last two games, and the fact that the Texans’ defense is of elite quality.
Furthermore, Houston didn’t allow a single touchdown to Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in the previous round, and they gave up just 20 passing touchdowns in 17 regular-season games.
Here are some of the key trends to monitor for the Patriots’ Divisional game against the Texans.
Coming to our early prediction, we feel that this Divisional round game between the Patriots and the Texans will be a low-scoring affair, given how strong both defenses are. Houston has an elite overall defense and an extraordinary pass rush, but its offense has really struggled this season.
The Patriots are more balanced on both sides of the ball. New England’s defense should make life even harder for C.J. Stroud and company, especially after seeing their performance against the Steelers.
Our prediction: New England Patriots win
The details for the Patriots vs Texans AFC Divisional round game are as follows.
| Game Details | Information |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, January 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts |
| TV | ESPN, ABC |
| Streaming | ESPN+ |
The Patriots vs Texans Divisional round matchup is scheduled for Sunday, January 18, 2026, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET.
New England will take on Houston at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, the home of the Patriots.
NFL viewers can catch the game between the Patriots and Texans on ESPN or ABC with live streaming options available on ESPN+, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, and Fubo.
The above odds are sourced from FanDuel. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!
Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images