The Netherlands are on the brink of sealing automatic qualification for the 2026 World Cup as they prepare to host Lithuania in their final Group G clash on Monday. Ronald Koeman’s side sit three points clear at the top after a 1-1 draw with Poland last time out. Lithuania, meanwhile, arrive in Amsterdam battling only for pride and the possibility of avoiding a last-place finish.
The Dutch were left frustrated in Warsaw after missing the chance to wrap up qualification early. Poland struck just before half-time, but Memphis Depay responded almost immediately after the restart to secure a draw. While the performance was mediocre, it did extend the Netherlands’ unbeaten competitive run and maintained their firm grip on top spot.
Let's finish this on Monday! 🇳🇱#NothingLikeOranje pic.twitter.com/7RAOHWU1QW
— OnsOranje (@OnsOranje) November 15, 2025
| Bets | Moneyline | Moneyline |
| Full Time Result | Netherlands: -2500, Lithuania: +4000 | Draw: +2000 |
| Draw No Bet | Netherlands: NA | Lithuania: +1500 |
| Total Goals | Over 4.5: +125 | Under 4.5: -185 |
| Netherlands to Win and Both Teams to Score | Yes: +230 | No: -275 |
| Lithuania to Win and Both Teams to Score | Yes: +5000 | No: +4000 |
(Odds via BetMGM)
Mathematically, Koeman’s men could still drop to second, but the scenario is effectively impossible. Not only would the Netherlands need to lose at home to Lithuania, Poland would have to overturn a mammoth 13-goal deficit when they face Malta. With Oranje boasting a +19 goal difference and unbeaten at home since October 2023, fans in Amsterdam can approach this fixture with confidence.
Lithuania, by contrast, have endured a difficult campaign and sit bottom of the group with just three points from seven matches. Edgaras Jankauskas’s side have struggled to keep pace in a competitive section and are winless in the qualifiers.
Their recent form underlines their challenges. Lithuania’s 0-0 draw with Israel in a friendly earlier this week extended their winless streak to 16 matches in all competitions. They did, however, test the Dutch in September, losing 3-2 in a spirited display at home.
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Under 4.5 Goals looks a sensible play given the recent form of both teams. The Netherlands have been dominant but controlled in qualifying, scoring four in back-to-back games against Finland and Malta. Lithuania, meanwhile, have struggled offensively and have not scored in their last two matches. With the Dutch likely to manage the game professionally rather than chase a huge scoreline, this game should go under the 4.5 line.
Gakpo has been heavily involved for the Netherlands in WC qualifying with 3 goals and 3 assists in 7 games. He averages over 2 shots per match across competitions this season. Operating in advanced roles across the front line, he’s likely to find spaces against Lithuania. As a result, it will give the in-form Liverpool attacker plenty of opportunities to add to his tally.
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The gap in quality between the two sides is substantial. For the Netherlands, the mission is simple: complete the job and secure first place. For Lithuania, the goal will be to finish on a competitive note. However, all signs point to a routine victory for the Oranje in Amsterdam.
Final Prediction: Netherlands 4-0 Lithuania
The Netherlands vs Lithuania clash is on November 17, 2025, at Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Netherlands are favorites to win with a moneyline at -2500, to draw at +2000 and for Lithuania to win at +4000.
Cody Gakpo to score anytime: -130
Bettors can explore a variety of betting options on BetMGM, including full-time results, over/under goals, and player props for this clash.
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