As we are two months into the 2025-26 NBA Regular Season, Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander has pulled as the MVP favorite with -450 at FanDuel. Luka Doncic, who was leading the charts a few days into the season, has slipped to second position with +740 odds. Cade Cunningham sits in the third spot with +1800. The market has significantly shifted into the last few days after recent stretches and injury impacts.
Here, we talk about the latest 2025-26 NBA MVP odds, analyze top contenders to win the award and see the longshots who stand a chance to occupy a spot up in the standings with a promising campaign. Voters usually reward players with elite individual campaigns, combined with the team’s success. Hence, current trends are based on stats and recent storylines.
Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander entered the season as the reigning regular-season MVP as well as NBA Finals MVP. He was also the favorite to repeat his heroics in the beginning of the season, but slipped to the second spot as Luka Doncic came on top. SGA is averaging almost 32 points per game, and is the second-leading scorer in the league, behind Doncic. The Thunder are seeded on the top of the standings with a 32-7 win-loss record.
At -450, the price feels short considering the Thunder’s favorable campaign as well as SGA’s scoring efficiency.
Luka Doncic, playing his first full regular season with the Los Angeles Lakers, has been guiding the side to a favorable season with his efficient offensive prowess. Being the NBA 2025-26 MVP favorite for a few weeks since the beginning, Doncic is the leading scorer in the league, dropping 33.7 points per game. The Lakers, however, have currently been struggling with six losses in the last ten games. He is a clear favorite in the market, but the gap between him and SGA is huge, and he wouldn’t want it to further widen.
At +750, there is some long-term value if Doncic continues his form and the Lakers emerge in top two or three West seeds.
Cade Cunningham is amongst the league’s top 15 leading scorers, scoring an average of 26.7 points. The Pistons are also having a promising campaign, currently leading the Eastern Conference with a solid 28-9 win-loss record. Considering his form, momentum and the Pistons’ rise in the East gives him a strong narrative.
At an implied probability of 5.26%, Cunningham’s real chances are closer to 8-10%, a better mid-range value plays on the board.
Jalyen Brown came forward and took his team’s scoring responsibility as the team missed Jayson Tatum. After a few initial hiccups, he brought his team to where they belonged, amongst the top in the East. Brown has been consistent with his scoring, and is dropping near to 30 points with multiple stand-out performances.
If Brown remains consistent, or better, if pushes himself and the Celtics remain in the top, the narrative could shift from him being a longshot pick to a favorite.
This is a <5% probability and it looks good if the Celtics start playing at an elite level and finish at the top of the Eastern Conference with a solid margin.
2025-26 NBA MVP Odds Movement and Market Storyline
The MVP market opened with a tighter race between hotshots of the league including Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, reigning MVP – Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander. Jokic was the favorite to win with +220, followed by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the second spot with +250, followed by Luka Doncic in the third and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the fourth spot.
As the season progressed, Doncic emerged at the top, while SGA occupied the second spot for most of the time. Cade Cunningham surpassed multiple stars to occupy a higher spot, while players such as Antetokounmpo and Jokic were soon out of the race due to prolonged injury layoffs.
As of now, SGA has gained the top spot, while the Slovenian star follows him at the second spot. The Thunder are leading the league with another favorable campaign, while the Lakers’ recent struggles proved to be a key reason in Doncic’s fall despite him dominating in terms of offense.
The next couple of months will be crucial, considering if the Thunder stumble and drop a few games, or if the Lakers get back into momentum, we could see a switch in the top two positions, or maybe a tightened race. Promising players and longshot players need to have a monster run to come on top in the favorites basket.
How We Are Betting the 2025-26 NBA MVP Right Now
Best Bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP at -450- Best value in the top tier if the Thunder remain consistent with their wins and SGA keeps dominating offense.
Contenders with Betting Value: Cade Cunningham at +1500- A favorable mid-range value with payout potential if Detroit stays at top in the west.
Historical Trends and Past Winners
Over the last ten seasons, guards or wins have been the MVP winners most of the time. Only two centers, including Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid have broken through in that span. Voters have generally favored the stars who display impactful offensive prowess and guide their teams to win.
As per records, voters have leaned towards players who have combined elite individual performance with their teams’ outstanding campaign and successful seasons. It is the reason the longer shots need to have a massive late surge.
Recent NBA MVP Winners
Season
Winner
Team
Notes
2025
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC Thunder
Historic individual campaign
2024
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets
3rd Time MVP
2023
Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers
First MVP for Embiid, elite defense
2022
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets
Back-to-back MVP title for Jokic
2021
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets
First MVP, carried Nuggets to playoffs.
NBA MVP Award Betting FAQs
Who votes for the NBA MVP Award?
A panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters vote for the NBA MVP award. They make their top five choices and award points on a scale of 10-7-5-3-1.
When is the NBA MVP Award announced?
The winner of the NBA MVP Award, or any other award is announced after the regular season, and before the playoffs.
Do playoffs / tournaments count for the award?
No, the NBA MVP award isn’t influenced by the postseason. They are only based on regular-season stats and performances.
How to Bet NBA Future and Awards
Betting on NBA Awards is a long-term play with potential upside, but it also comes with unique risks. For example, the bettors are always advised to shop for the best prices across multiple sportsbooks. These bets would lock up your money, and have high chances of bigger swings. Make sure to put in money only when you can risk losing it.
Garima is a sports writer with around two years of experience in Indian sports and a newfound interest in the NBA. Inspired by the leadership of cricketing legend MS Dhoni, she wishes to bring in newer perspectives to the NBA fanatics with her writing.
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