Aug 26, 2025; Flushing, NY, USA; Naomi Osaka (JPN) celebrates after her match against Greet Minnen (BEL) (not pictured) on day three of the 2025 US Open tennis tournament at Billie Jean King USTA National Tennis Center.

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Naomi Osaka vs. Daria Kasatkina Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for US Open 2025 Round-3

Winner to face Gauff or Frech in Round-4.

Former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka takes on 15th seed Daria Kasatkina of Australia in the 2025 US Open Round of 32 on Saturday. While the Japanese sensation has been playing some of her best tennis since giving birth, Kasatkina is a tricky customer to come up against. Today, we look to break down the match preview, head-to-head record and predictions for the encounter. Finally, BetMGM will provide the most accurate betting odds for this Round-3 tussle.

Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina Match Preview

Naomi Osaka entered the US Open with some much-needed momentum, after reaching the final of the Canadian Open. She has risen to No. 24 in the world, and notched two impressive victories over Minnen and Baptiste so far. After a run to the summit clash in her first tournament of the season in Auckland, Osaka failed to make a noteworthy statement. She won the WTA-125 title in Saint-Malo, as well as pre-quarterfinals in Bad Homburg and Washington DC. The 27-year-old has a 29-12 record so far in 2025.

Naomi Osaka. Two fits, same energy ✨ pic.twitter.com/Rgj5mrpRP0
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 28, 2025

Daria Kasatkina has encountered a torrid time on tour this year – achieving a success rate of merely 50% so far. She reached the quarterfinals in Adelaide at the beginning of the season, and also entered the Round of 16 at two out of three majors in 2025. Currently ranked No. 18 in the WTA Rankings, the Australian is a two-time pre-quarterfinalist at this event. The 28-year-old will be keen on making a return to the Top-10 sooner rather than later. Kasatkina defeated Ruse and Rakhimova in two tight contests in order to enter Round-3.

What an arm wrestle! 💪

Daria Kasatkina sets up a third-round clash with Naomi Osaka after her 6-2 4-6 7-5 victory over Rakihimova at the @usopen #GoAussies pic.twitter.com/AHhvsrAPzu
— TennisAustralia (@TennisAustralia) August 29, 2025

Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina Head to Head Record

The head-to-head record is currently 2-0 in favour of Naomi Osaka. She has won both previous encounters in straight sets.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024 Rome	Round of 32	Naomi Osaka	6-3 6-3
2018 Indian Wells	Final	Naomi Osaka	6-3 6-2

Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina Career Comparison

Naomi Osaka	Category	Daria Kasatkina
24	Current Ranking	18
316-178	Career W-L Record	403-236
29-12	YTD W-L Record	19-19
7	Career Titles	8
0	YTD Titles	0
4	Grand Slams	0

Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina US Open 2025 Prediction

While Kasatkina has the speed and variety to trouble most players on tour, her power occasionally fails her. When she faces some of the aggressive baseliners, the Russian-turned-Australian tends to stay too deep behind the baseline and play on the back foot. Osaka’s serve could trouble Kasatkina, leading to short rallies and plenty of winners. We predict a relatively straightforward victory for the Japanese starlet.

Prediction: Naomi Osaka in straight sets.

Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina US Open 2025 Betting Odds

Osaka is the favourite in this US Open 2025 encounter against Kasatkina. According to the implied probability on the money line, Osaka has a 74% chance of emerging victorious. Here are the detailed odds (as per BetMGM):

Naomi Osaka Win: 1/4
Daria Kasatkina Win: 29/10

Total Games <19.5: 19/20
Total Sets <2.5: 21/50
Kasatkina +1.5 (Set Handicap): 11/10
Osaka -5.5 (Game Handicap): 11/10
Osaka to Win 2-0: 4/6
Total Number of Tiebreaks <0.5: 2/9

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Geoff Burke, Imagn Images)

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Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.