In a looming World Cup 2026 qualifier, Moldova are hosting Italy in what promises to be a challenging encounter for the hosts. Moldova are at the bottom of Group I and are seeking pride. Meanwhile, Italy are already assured of finishing in the top two. But still harbour ambitions of direct qualification.
Moldova head into this fixture reeling from a series of heavy defeats. But a recent draw offered a glimmer of hope. Meanwhile, Italy under new leadership are keen to build momentum and avoid reliance on a playoff route to reach North America.
| Bets | Status | Moneyline |
| Total Goals | Under 3.5 | -118 |
| Total Shots | Over 27.5 | -156 |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 8.5 | -192 |
| Total Corners | Under 8.5 | +114 |
| Total Cards | Under 3.5 | +130 |
| Moldova Goalkeeper Saves | Over 5.5 | +240 |
| Italy Goalkeeper Saves | Over 3.5 | +220 |
The Tricolours are continuing life without a win in this qualification cycle. Their last campaign was marred by drubbings including an 11-1 loss. Their squad is missing versatile midfielder Nichita Motpan due to injury.
Although they are welcoming back playmaker Artur Ionita and all-time top scorer Ion Nicolaescu after his recovery. The challenge remains huge as they attempt to salvage some dignity at home.
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Italy are already locked into at least a playoff spot. They will skip the direct qualification race unless results elsewhere go their way. They have shuffled the squad with regulars missing. Nicolo Barella is suspended and Federico Chiesa has declined selection.
In comes boost in the form of Gianluca Scamacca back in the fold. They’re also getting defensive freshening up with Alessandro Buongiorno and Samuele Ricci returning. Coach Gennaro Gattuso may rotate but will still expect dominance.
Italy are visiting Moldova with a mission to secure three points and maintain momentum. Yet the gap in class means the Azzurri could cruise through without needing a goal-fest. Moldova’s squad, while spirited, has been porous defensively. They’ve conceded over four goals per outing in recent qualifiers.
But Italy have also shown a pragmatic approach under Gattuso. They’ve often settled contests without piling up the numbers. The visitors are likely to control possession and limit risks. Hence, a tighter scoreline under 3.5 total goals appears a smart betting angle.
Striker Mateo Retegui continues to emerge as Italy’s focal point in attack. He has already notched multiple goals this qualification cycle and boasts both finishing threat and movement off the last defender. Given Moldova’s defensive fragility and Italy’s likely dominance of territory and chances, Retegui looks a strong bet to score at any time in this tie.
Winger Riccardo Orsolini has been in excellent form at club level. He is contributing goals and key passes. This has earned him a renewed place in the national setup. Operating in spaces behind the striker and off the flank, Orsolini has the creativity and end-product to either score or lay one on in a mismatch like this. With Moldova expected to invite pressure, he could thrive in the transition.
| Picks | Moneyline |
| Mateo retegui to score first | +220 |
| Riccardo Orsolini to score anytime | -180 |
| Federico Dimarco to assist anytime | +160 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito to either score or assist | -260 |
| Virgiliu Postolachi to see a card | +220 |
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Italy are travelling to this match as overwhelming favourites. They should manage the game with control throughout. Moldova’s defence has been repeatedly breached under pressure. They’ve also rarely threatened against stronger sides.
Italy, benefiting from attacking cohesion and experience, are expected to break through early and see the contest out with relative ease. A 3-0 away win is very much within reach. Especially as Gattuso’s men are looking to keep momentum and avoid a tense playoff scenario.
The Moldova vs Italy UEFA World Cup qualifiers clash is on November 13, 2025, at the Zimbru Stadium, Chisinau, Moldova.
Italy are favorites to win with a moneyline at -2000, to draw at +1200 and for Moldova to win at +3000.
Mateo Retegui to score anytime: -155
Federico Dimarco to assist anytime: +150
Riccardo Orsolini to either score or assist: -163
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