Top-20 duo rekindles an engaging rivalry in Shanghai.
In a battle between the in-form players, Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime will contest for bragging rights in the 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters Round of 16. It will be the No. 8 seed taking on the No. 12 seed in a repeat of the bronze medal match from the 2024 Paris Olympics. The winner of this encounter will face either Jiri Lehecka or Arthur Rinderknech in the quarterfinal stage. With the help of BetMGM, you can get all the betting odds for this match-up, as well as the rest of the tennis events throughout the calendar season.
Musetti and Auger-Aliassime have a rivalry that dates back to the clay court season of 2021. While the two players have contrasting game styles, their strengths and weaknesses cancel each other out. The 23-year-old Italian is predominantly a clay court specialist – he has already won a tour-level title on the red dirt, and also captured the Olympic bronze medal on the courts of Roland Garros. On the other hand, Auger-Aliassime has tasted the most success on hard courts, winning all seven career singles titles on this surface.
Musetti is currently ranked No. 9 in the world, as opposed to World No. 13 for his Canadian counterpart. An attacking baseliner with one of the best single-handed backhands in the game, he is searching for a maiden championship run of 2025. Musetti has reached finals in Monte Carlo and Chengdu, as well as semifinals in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime had already won two titles at Adelaide and Montpellier by February. The 25-year-old was also the runner-up in Dubai, and recently made the final four at the 2025 US Open.
Musetti has a slight advantage of 4-3 when it comes to the head-to-head record against Auger-Aliassime. Having already faced each other four times on clay courts, the Shanghai Masters pre-quarterfinal is set to be their fourth meeting on hard courts. The Italian emerged triumphant in their most recent battle – at the 2025 Miami Open.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Miami | Round of 32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 4-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024 Paris Olympics | Bronze Medal Match | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 1-6 6-3 |
| 2022 Davis Cup | Semifinal | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022 Florence | Semifinal | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2022 Monte Carlo | Round of 32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-2 7-6(2) |
| 2021 Lyon | Round of 32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5 |
| 2021 Barcelona | Round of 32 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 4-6 6-3 6-0 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | Category | Felix Auger-Aliassime |
| 9 | Current Ranking | 13 |
| 169-126 | Career W-L Ranking | 251-166 |
| 37-15 | YTD W-L Ranking | 36-19 |
| 2 | Career Titles | 7 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 2 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Both players are yet to drop a set this week, and will come in with a considerable amount of energy left in the tank. On the hard courts, Auger-Aliassime has a 2-1 record against Musetti. The Canadian is the most comfortable when he can trust the pace and bounce, and take the ball on the rise. A major determinant will be which player can adapt to the heat and humidity, and physically outlast the opposition. With Auger-Aliassime winning over 75% first serve points and being a hard court task master, we predict the Canadian to have a slight edge.
Prediction: Felix Auger-Aliassime in three sets.
Lorenzo Musetti has a very acute advantage in the pre-match betting odds over the minnow – Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Italian has been given odds of 3/4 in comparison with 21/20 for the Canadian. According to the implied probability on the money line, Musetti’s chances of advancing to the next round are currently 54%. Here are the odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Geoff Burke, Imagn Images)
