Jul 31, 2025; Toronto, ON, Canada; Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) reacts after winning a point against Alex Michelsen (not pictured) during the third round at Sobeys Stadium.

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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for US Open 2025 Round-1

Winner to face Goffin or Halys in Round-2.

Jul 31, 2025; Toronto, ON, Canada; Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) reacts after winning a point against Alex Michelsen (not pictured) during the third round at Sobeys Stadium.

No. 10 seed Lorenzo Musetti looks to return to winning ways against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard of France in Round-1 of the US Open 2025 on Tuesday. The big serving Frenchman will be keen on eliminating a top seed and clearing his path to make a deep run in New York. Will the grace and elegance of Musetti withstand the brute force of Mpetshi Perricard? Let’s take a look at the match preview, early predictions and BetMGM’s favourable odds for this match-up.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match Preview

Since reaching the Roland Garros semifinals in June, World No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti has fallen off in major fashion. The Italian has amassed just one win across four tournaments since then, with his only victory coming at the National Bank Open in Canada. The 23-year-old Paris Olympics bronze medalist has secured 26 wins and 12 losses this year – including a final in Monte Carlo and three consecutive semifinals in Madrid, Rome and Paris. When it comes to hard courts however, Musetti’s 6-6 record makes him liable to defeat.

Ridiculous. Absurd.

Lorenzo Musetti may have produced the shot of The Championships 🤯#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/jHFjMJkhaE
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2024

Classified as a ‘serve-bot’ in modern day tennis lingo, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is searching for his first title of the 2025 season. He is riding a wave of confidence after reaching the final four in Winston-Salem last week. The World No. 37 began the year by reaching the semis in Brisbane, but managed just two wins during the European clay court swing. Although his 6-7 hard court record fails to scream about his potential, Mpetshi Perricard has two career titles to prove his worth. His service game success rate of 85% on hard courts will put Musetti under the pump.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Head to Head Record

Musetti leads the head-to-head against Mpetshi Perricard by 2-0 at the moment. They faced each other twice in 2024.

Considering both their previous encounters were on grass, this is the first meeting between these youngsters on this surface. Musetti edged out two tiebreaks against the 6’8” giant at Stuttgart, before booking a rematch against him in the Wimbledon 2024 Round of 16. Here, the Italian No. 2 dropped the opening set before emerging victorious.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024 Wimbledon	Round of 16	Lorenzo Musetti	4-6 6-3 6-3 6-2
2024 Stuttgart	Round of 32	Lorenzo Musetti	7-6(9) 7-6(9)

Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Career Comparison

Lorenzo Musetti	Category	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
10	Current Ranking	37
158-123	Career W-L Record	31-33
26-12	YTD W-L Record	13-18
2	Career Titles	2
0	YTD Titles	0
0	Grand Slams	0

Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard US Open 2025 Prediction

In spite of what the past records may suggest, we predict Mpetshi Perricard to overturn the odds on Tuesday. The conditions of the Louis Armstrong Stadium mean that while there is enough pace for him to work with, he also stands a chance in baseline exchanges against Musetti. The Italian has hit a slump in terms of his hard court progress, and has been struggling to find a rhythm on his groundstrokes. If Mpetshi Perricard can apply pressure on his backhand wing and make some inroads on the Musetti serve, he is assured of a win.

Prediction: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in four sets.

BRAVO LORENZO 🇮🇹

Lorenzo Musetti secures a place in a maiden Grand Slam quarter-final by overcoming Lucky Loser Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 💪#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/EDLWt7bd7V
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 8, 2024

Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard US Open 2025 Betting Odds

Musetti is a strong betting favourite, with almost double the odds against underdog Mpetshi Perricard for the US Open Round of 128. According to the implied probability on the money line, Musetti’s 71% likelihood of winning makes him a strong contender at the US Open. Here’s a detailed look at how the odds are shaping up (as per BetMGM):

Lorenzo Musetti Win: 4/9
Mpetshi Perricard Win: 7/4

Total Games >40.5: 17/20
Musetti to Win Most Games: 4/9
Musetti -1.5 (Set Handicap): 22/25
Mpetshi Perricard +3.5 (Game Handicap): 17/20
Mpetshi Perricard to Win At Least 1 Set (Yes): 3/10
Tiebreak in Set-2 (Yes): Evens

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images)

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Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.