$150
Can the Brazilian script Masters-1000 history in California?
Brazilian prodigy Joao Fonseca will begin his campaign at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open with an important Round of 128 clash against Raphael Collignon of Belgium on Wednesday. The 19-year-old has secured just one win so far this year, meaning that a strong performance is needed at the Californian desert to stay within touching distance of the Top-20. However, Collignon’s impressive outings at the ATP-250s and ATP Challengers will give him the confidence to score an upset. Who will come out on top?
Having recently been nominated for the breakthrough of the year at the Laureus Sport Awards, Joao Fonseca is asserting his presence on the ATP Tour. With two tour-level trophies to his name, the youngster is well on his way towards superstardom. Fonseca has 38 wins and 27 losses on the circuit, including career-best Round of 32 finishes at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Currently the No. 1 ranked men’s player from Brazil, he will start this match as the favorite.
Raphael Collignon went all the way to complete a championship run in Pau last month. Having also won back-to-back Davis Cup encounters and reached the quarterfinals in Brisbane, this has been his best start to a season. The 24-year-old broke into the Top-60 during early 2026, and stands tall as the second best male player from his country at the moment. Having turned pro in 2022, Collignon achieved a massive high by reaching Round-3 at the 2025 US Open. He is still searching for his first career title.
According to the tennis betting odds on BetMGM, Joao Fonseca (-148) is the favorite to advance to Round-2 in California. On the other hand, Raphael Collignon (+118) is a partial underdog on the pre-match moneyline. Here’s how we are betting on this Round of 128 duel at the ATP BNP Paribas Open 2026 at Indian Wells, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Given below are the latest odds for Joao Fonseca vs Raphael Collignon from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | BetMGM | FanDuel |
| Moneyline | Fonseca (-148), Collignon (+118) | Fonseca (-150), Collignon (+122) |
| Game Handicap | Fonseca -1.5 (-121), Collignon +1.5 (-107) | |
| Total Games | >22.5 (-115), <22.5 (-113) | |
| Set Betting | Fonseca 2-0 (+150), Collignon 2-0 (+245) |
Our Pick: Joao Fonseca -1.5 Sets at +165 Odds.
Despite the odds market suggesting a potential three setter, there is a possibility that Fonseca opens his account with a bang. Considering his poor 1-3 start to 2026, the Brazilian will be out to prove a point. Moreover, his home fans will certainly fill up the stands in support of their prodigious talent which will tilt the scales in his favor. Looking at the hard court record of Fonseca and Collignon, it is the Belgian who has a higher efficiency on service points. Yet, Fonseca capitalizes on the half chances under pressure which gives him a superior 82% service game success rate.
Joao Fonseca has a 1-0 record in the head-to-head against Raphael Collignon on the ATP Tour. Their only previous meeting took place at the Davis Cup 2024 Round Robin stage, where the Brazilian needed three sets to overcome his counterpart. The Indian Wells R128 will be the first battle between Fonseca and Collignon in an individual event and on an outdoor hard court.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 Davis Cup | Round Robin | Joao Fonseca | 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3 |
The ATP Indian Wells 2026 can be streamed live on various platforms and channels, depending on which part of the world you are watching from. This includes Tennis TV, Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, beIN Sports, ESPN International, Setanta Sports and TSN.
| Date | March 4, 2026 |
| Time | Around 17:30 Local (Approx.) |
| Tournament | ATP BNP Paribas Open, Round of 128 |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Stadium 3, Indian Wells Tennis Garden |
| TV/Streaming | Tennis TV, Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, beIN Sports, ESPN International, Setanta Sports and TSN. |
(Image Credits: David Gonzales, Imagn Images)
