Paolini and Jabeur Face Off in a Clay-Court Showdown
The sixth-seeded Jasmine Paolini will face off against 27th seed Ons Jabeur in a highly anticipated third-round clash at the Italian Open. Both players received first-round byes, but their paths diverged in the second round. Paolini handled Lulu Sun with ease in straight sets, while Jabeur advanced without lifting her racquet after Petra Kvitova withdrew due to a leg injury.
World No. 5 Paolini enters Rome riding momentum from back-to-back semifinal runs in Miami and Stuttgart, both halted by Aryna Sabalenka. Still, she impressed with wins over big names like Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff. Yet, consistency has been elusive. Outside those two deep runs, she hasn’t gone beyond the round of 16 all season and was recently dismissed by Maria Sakkari in straight sets in Madrid.
Jabeur, meanwhile, opened 2025 with promise, reaching the Brisbane quarterfinals and the third round in Melbourne before falling to Emma Navarro. She followed that with consecutive quarterfinal runs in Abu Dhabi and Doha but couldn’t convert either, losing to Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko, respectively. Since then, the Tunisian star has struggled for traction, not advancing past the round of 32 in any tournament.
Jasmine Paolini and Ons Jabeur are tied at 2-2 in their head-to-head, setting the stage for a compelling fifth encounter at the Italian Open.
Their story began at the 2022 Madrid Open, where Jabeur edged out a tight first-set tiebreak before cruising through the second. She followed it up with another dominant win at the 2023 Eastbourne International, stamping early authority in their matchup. But Paolini flipped the momentum last year in Stuttgart, defeating Jabeur in straight sets with her own gritty tiebreak win.
Earlier this season, their Miami clash ended abruptly when Jabeur retired due to a calf injury, leveling their head-to-head. The pair has also split their 2 meetings on clay. Now, with both players arriving in Rome looking sharp, the Italian Open showdown will decide who seizes the lead in this evolving rivalry.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2022 | Madrid Open | First Round | Ons Jabeur | 7–6, 6–1 |
| 2023 | Eastbourne International | First Round | Ons Jabeur | 6–3, 6–2 |
| 2024 | Stuttgart Open | Second Round | Jasmine Paolini | 7–6, 6–4 |
| 2025 | Miami Open | Third Round | Jasmine Paolini | 4–3 (retired) |
| Jasmine Paolini | Category | Ons Jabeur |
| 5 | Ranking | 36 |
| 402-278 | Career W-L | 457-255 |
| 16-8 | YTD W-L | 12-9 |
| 2 | Career Titles | 5 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Paolini’s riding a hot streak, with solid wins and back-to-back semis giving her real momentum. However, Jabeur’s shot-making magic can flip any match, but her inconsistency this season raises questions.
Prediction: Jasmine Paolini in straight sets
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Jasmine Paolini: 21/50
Ons Jabeur: 9/5
