Sep 2, 2024; Flushing, NY, USA; Jannik Sinner of Italy in action against Tommy Paul of the United States on day eight of the 2024 U.S. Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

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Jannik Sinner vs. Tommy Paul Head to Head Record, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Italian Open 2025 Semifinal

Winner to face Alcaraz or Musetti in the final.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner’s attempt at turning his dream of winning a home title in Rome into a reality continues on Friday. The 23-year-old faces American trophy hope Tommy Paul in the semifinal of the 2025 Internazionali BNL d’Italia at the Foro Italico. While Sinner produced a thoroughly dominant quarterfinal win, Paul overcame a massive hurdle against Hubert Hurkacz to book his spot in the final four.

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Preview

Top seed Sinner delivered an attacking masterclass against Casper Ruud on Thursday. The three-time Grand Slam winner struck 22 winners and 10 unforced errors en route to a 6-0 6-1 victory against a man who won the Madrid Masters merely a fortnight ago. With a 9-1 record and 85.7% service game win percentage on clay over the past year, Sinner starts as the strong favourite on paper. He is on a 25-match unbeaten run – becoming just the fifth man to achieve this record in this century after the Big-4.

No hype needed for this one 🙂‍↔️

Jannik Sinner currently holds a 3-1 H2H over Tommy Paul. Stream their fifth meeting this Friday on Tennis Channel 🍝#IBI25 pic.twitter.com/BSltDzlH0v
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) May 15, 2025

Currently ranked No. 12 in the world, Tommy Paul is aiming to regain his Top-10 ranking. The American has defeated Bautista Agut, Machac, de Minaur and Hurkacz to reach the semifinals – dropping just one set along the way. With a 40% break point conversion rate on this surface, Paul will hope that he can make inroads on the Sinner serve come Friday. This will be the fifth meeting between the players.

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Head to Head Record

Jannik Sinner has a 3-1 head to head record against Tommy Paul so far. They have played each other twice at the Masters-1000 level and once at the Grand Slam level.

At the 2022 Madrid Masters, Sinner pipped Paul in a thrilling Round of 64 match-up. The 2023 Australian Open semifinalist tied the match-up a couple of months later in Eastbourne 2022. Since then, Sinner has outlasted Paul in two hard court encounters without dropping a set.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024 US Open	Round of 16	Jannik Sinner	7-6(3) 7-6(5) 6-1
2023 Canada Masters	Semifinal	Jannik Sinner	6-4 6-4
2022 Eastbourne	Round of 16	Tommy Paul	6-3 3-6 6-3
2022 Madrid	Round of 64	Jannik Sinner	6-7(4) 7-6(4) 6-3

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Career Comparison

Jannik Sinner	Category	Tommy Paul
3	Grand Slams	0
19	ATP Singles Titles	4
1	ATP Doubles Titles	0
4	Masters-1000 Titles	0
5	ATP-500 Titles	1
–	Olympics Best Performance	QF (Paris 2024)
No. 1	Current World Ranking	No. 12

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Italian Open 2025 Prediction

In some sense, Tommy Paul has a similar game style to Sinner – flat groundstrokes on both wings, baseline heavy game, quick court coverage. This plays into the hands of the Italian, as he thrives when there is pace on the ball. Considering the match will be played under floodlights in the night, Paul will have to add some variety to his game in order to use the slower conditions to his advantage. However, Sinner’s current form and the wild Roman fans will do him no favours.

Prediction: Jannik Sinner in straight sets.

Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Italian Open 2025 Betting Odds

The betting odds are heavily skewed in favour of the Italian No. 1 so far. He has a 90% pre-match probability of winning the encounter. With the markets showing minimal fluctuation, a straight sets victory is potentially on the cards.

Jannik Sinner Win: -900

Tommy Paul Win: +575

(According to BetMGM)

ATP

Betting

Carlos Alcaraz

Italian Open

Jannik Sinner

Lorenzo Musetti

Rome Masters

Tennis

Tommy Paul

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.