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Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Head to Head Record, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Italian Open 2025 Final

Sankalp Harikrishnan

Battle for the Ages on Roman Soil

The dream final will take centre stage in Rome, when World No. 1 Jannik Sinner takes on a familiar foe in the form of four-time Grand Slam champion Carlos Alcaraz. Both players are looking to capture their first trophy here at the 2025 Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Sunday. As a scintillating rivalry gets its newest chapter, who will stamp his authority on the ATP circuit in this David vs Goliath encounter at the Eternal City?

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview

“He has more matches under his belt this season, but it doesn’t matter because in a final anything can happen,” Jannik Sinner said ahead of the titanic tussle. It will be the first meeting between the two next-gen stars in a Masters-1000 final. The World No. 1 started the year with a championship run at the Australian Open, and is currently on a 26-match unbeaten run. After a dominant performance against Casper Ruud in the quarterfinal, he showed signs of rust vs Tommy Paul in the final four stage.

While Sinner is possibly going through some physical issues, Carlos Alcaraz has bounced back from a Madrid Open withdrawal with aplomb. The 22-year-old has beaten Sinner in their last three battles, and dropped just one set en route to the summit clash. Both men are contesting their 25th tour-level final – while Sinner has a 10-1 clay court record over the past year, Alcaraz has gone 26-2.

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Head to Head Record

Carlos Alcaraz leads the head to head record against Jannik Sinner by 6-4 so far. Sunday’s final will be their first encounter in 2025, and the first in a Masters-1000 final.

Rated as the two flag-bearers of tennis for years to come, Sinner and Alcaraz have given fans some of the most enthralling matches in recent times. It is a rivalry that originated at the 2021 Paris Masters, which the Paris Olympics silver medalist won in two tight sets. Since then, the duo kept winning thrilling duels in pairs, until Alcaraz pulled away in 2024.

READ ALSO: Jasmine Paolini Reigns Supreme in Rome and Wins Italian Open 2025 Title vs Coco Gauff

Having faced each other twice on outdoor clay before, the face-off on this surface is 1-1. This will also be the third time these former teen sensations lock horns in a final. The most recent Alcaraz-Sinner episode produced one of the matches of the year – in the final of Beijing 2024.

EventRoundWinnerScore
2024 BeijingFinalCarlos Alcaraz6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3)
2024 Roland GarrosSemifinalCarlos Alcaraz2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3
2024 Indian WellsSemifinalCarlos Alcaraz1-6 6-3 6-2
2023 BeijingSemifinalJannik Sinner7-6(4) 6-1
2023 MiamiSemifinalJannik Sinner6-7(4) 6-4 6-2
2023 Indian WellsSemifinalCarlos Alcaraz7-6(4) 6-3
2022 US OpenQuarterfinalCarlos Alcaraz6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3
2022 UmagFinalJannik Sinner6-7(5) 6-1 6-1
2022 WimbledonRound of 16Jannik Sinner6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3
2021 Paris MastersRound of 32Carlos Alcaraz7-6(1) 7-5

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Career Comparison

Jannik SinnerCategoryCarlos Alcaraz
3Grand Slams4
19ATP Singles Titles18
1ATP Doubles Titles0
4Masters-1000 Titles6
5ATP-500 Titles6
Olympics Best PerformanceSilver (Paris 2024)
No. 1Current World RankingNo. 3

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Italian Open 2025 Final Prediction

When a boulder meets a brick wall, they can only be separated by a strand of hair. Alcaraz will use a plethora of slow-paced shots – including slices, drops, and elevated top spin forehands. For the Italian, keeping the points short will be of vital importance in this slugfest. We predict the crowd to have the final say, as Sinner will feed off the energy from the Italian cauldron.

Prediction: Jannik Sinner in three sets.

READ MORE: Double Delight at Home as Jannik Sinner and Jasmine Paolini Become History Makers at 2025 Italian Open

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Italian Open 2025 Final Betting Odds

Hours before they step into a cinematic Campo Centrale experience, Jannik Sinner leads the pre-match charts. He goes into the encounter with a 58% chance of success. The betting markets have tipped over slightly in favour of the top seed.

Jannik Sinner Win: -140

Carlos Alcaraz Win: +120

(According to BetMGM)

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The PlayOffs, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.

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