Can the German finally turn the tide on his arch rival?
For the fourth time in the ongoing season as well as the third consecutive tournament, World No. 2 Jannik Sinner and World No. 3 Alexander Zverev will clash at the Nitto ATP Finals 2025. Although the German powerhouse made it clear that he prefers to face Carlos Alcaraz over Sinner, he will have to overcome his worst fear on Wednesday. Having failed to taste victory against the Italian for over two years, it will be intriguing to see if Turin proves to be Sascha’s lucky charm. Follow BetMGM for all the betting odds at this week’s season-ending championships.
While the rest of the tour may not stand a chance against him, Jannik Sinner has dominated Alexander Zverev in the recent past. At the Erste Bank Open in Vienna as well as the Paris Masters, the 24-year-old pulled off contrasting wins. Currently ranked No. 3 in the world, Zverev has produced an encouraging season so far – with more wins than Sinner himself. However, the Italian is a four-time Grand Slam champion, with two of them coming in 2025 and one of them vs Zverev himself.
The 28-year-old German has made a solitary championship run this year, at the BMW Open in Munich. His jinx of three major finals without success is yet to come to an end. Zverev also reached the final in Stuttgart and Vienna so far. Comparing the two players on hard courts this season, Sinner has won 72% service points and 43% return points as opposed to 62% and 37% for his 6’6” opposition. With five trophies added to his tally in 2025, there is no doubt that Sinner has the edge in the match-up.
Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head against Alexander Zverev by 5-4. The round robin encounter at the Nitto ATP Finals 2025 will be the duo’s eighth encounter on hard courts, and first at this event.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Paris Bercy | Semifinal | Jannik Sinner | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2025 Vienna | Final | Jannik Sinner | 3-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025 Australian Open | Final | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2024 Cincinnati | Semifinal | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(9) 5-7 7-6(4) |
| 2023 US Open | Round of 16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 |
| 2022 Monte Carlo | Quarterfinal | Alexander Zverev | 5-7 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2021 US Open | Round of 16 | Alexander Zverev | 6-4 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2020 Cologne-2 | Semifinal | Alexander Zverev | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2020 Roland Garros | Round of 16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| Jannik Sinner | Category | Alexander Zverev |
| 2 | Current Ranking | 3 |
| 317-86 | Career W-L Record | 518-221 |
| 54-6 | YTD W-L Record | 55-23 |
| 23 | Career Titles | 24 |
| 5 | YTD Titles | 1 |
| 4 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Beating Jannik Sinner on an indoor hard court remains one of the biggest challenges on the men’s tour at present. His potent first strike return of serve means that the opponents are under constant pressure of the +1 shot. Instead of allowing them to take the attack to him, Sinner pushes them behind the baseline and does not allow for any execution of the game plan whatsoever. We predict a straightforward victory for the former World No. 1 against Zverev.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner in straight sets.
Sinner (1/8) is the favorite and Zverev (21/4) is the underdog in the Nitto ATP Finals 2025 Group Stage odds market. The World No. 2 has been given favourable odds to win in straight sets, as you will see below. According to the implied probability on the money line, Sinner’s chances of victory are currently 83% (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Mike Frey, Imagn Images)
