Four-time Grand Slam champion Jannik Sinner may have lost out on the year-end World No. 1 ranking, but he will be keen on retaining his trophy at the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. He will come up against the fierce Australian Alex de Minaur who rose from the dead to qualify for the knockouts. The winner of this match is set to face Carlos Alcaraz or Zverev/Auger-Aliassime in the final. Follow BetMGM to get all the odds for this year’s season-ending championships.
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Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Match Preview
Barring his losses against Carlos Alcaraz, World No. 2 Jannik Sinner has lost just one completed match throughout the year. The Italian has displayed remarkable dominance in 2025, marked by his total of five titles and four runner-up finishes. Apart from this, the 24-year-old powerhouse also captured the Six Kings Slam in Riyadh for the second consecutive year. Sinner’s success rate of over 90% is among the highest on tour – this includes big wins in the round robin here at the ATP Finals.
Jannik Sinner is the first player in history to win all 3 Round Robin matches without conceding a set at the ATP Finals in consecutive years.
After losing his first two group stage fixtures, it looked like Alex de Minaur would have to pack his bags. Yet, the 26-year-old produced one of his best performances of the season to down Taylor Fritz 7-6(3) 6-3 and enter the semis. The Demon had two separate hard court purple patches in 2025 – at the beginning of the season where he made the quarterfinal in Melbourne Park and final in Rotterdam – as well as the second half where won the Citi DC Open before making the last eight at the US Open. Alex de Minaur’s win-loss ratio currently stands at 56-23.
0-16 in last 16 matches against the top 10… 0-5 lifetime at the ATP Finals… 0-2 in last two matches against Taylor Fritz…
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Head to Head Record
Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head against Alex de Minaur by 12-0. This includes three consecutive wins in 2025. The Aussie’s only victory over Sinner was at the 2023 Paris Masters – where the former World No. 1 offered a walkover.
Event
Round
Winner
Score
2025 Vienna
Semifinal
Jannik Sinner
6-3 6-4
2025 Beijing
Semifinal
Jannik Sinner
6-3 4-6 6-2
2025 Australian Open
Quarterfinal
Jannik Sinner
6-3 6-2 6-1
2024 Davis Cup
Semifinal
Jannik Sinner
6-3 6-4
2024 ATP Finals
Round Robin
Jannik Sinner
6-3 6-4
2024 Rotterdam
Final
Jannik Sinner
7-5 6-4
2023 Davis Cup
Final
Jannik Sinner
6-3 6-0
2023 Toronto
Final
Jannik Sinner
6-4 6-1
2022 Madrid
Round of 32
Jannik Sinner
6-4 6-1
2022 Australian Open
Round of 16
Jannik Sinner
7-6(3) 6-3 6-4
2020 Sofia
Quarterfinal
Jannik Sinner
6-7(3) 6-4 6-1
2019 Next Gen Finals
Final
Jannik Sinner
4-2 4-1 4-2
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Career Comparison
Jannik Sinner
Category
Alex de Minaur
2
Current Ranking
7
316-86
Career W-L Record
304-176
53-6
YTD W-L Record
55-21
23
Career Titles
10
5
YTD Titles
1
4
Grand Slams
0
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nitto ATP Finals 2025 Prediction
Sinner is likely to remain on the front foot for a vast majority of this encounter. One of the major improvements in the de Minaur game has been his ability to engage in groundstroke duels instead of merely putting the ball back in the court. But after a taxing match-up against Fritz, a lot will depend on how much the Australian has in the tank. Sinner’s proficient serve plus one tactic means that de Minaur will need to go full throttle on the service return in order to stand a chance.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner in straight sets.
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Nitto ATP Finals 2025 Betting Odds
''He played one of the best matches this year, he doesn't have a lot to lose, I have a lot to lose''
Jannik Sinner on his ATP Finals play and facing Alex De Minaur in the semi-finals 📽️ pic.twitter.com/WxRlqa9X1R
Sinner () has a dominant advantage against the underdog de Minaur () in terms of the pre-match odds market. According to the implied probability on the money line, the Italian has a chance of progressing to the summit clash. Given below are the best bets for the match result and in-match specifics (as per BetMGM):
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