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Sinner puts his flawless record vs. de Minaur on the line.
World No. 2 Jannik Sinner is on the quest for a third title of an increasingly mind-boggling 2025 campaign. The 24-year-old hits a major roadblock in the 2025 China Open semifinal, as Australian sensation Alex de Minaur awaits the four-time Grand Slam champion. The winner of this match-up will take on either Learner Tien or Daniil Medvedev in the summit clash on Wednesday. Let us preview the statistics and records for this China Open duel, before going through the BetMGM favorable odds.
Having stood across the net at the beginning of the season, Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur will lock horns yet again. The Italian got the better of his counterpart at the 2025 Australian Open, as has been the case throughout their careers. While Sinner’s two championship runs this year have both been at the majors, de Minaur won the title in Washington DC. Coming to their rankings, it is the four-time Grand Slam winner who holds an advantage of No. 2 in the world as opposed to World No. 8 for the Aussie.
While Jannik Sinner began his campaign with a tough opener against Marin Cilic, he came through with relative ease. Although Frenchman Terence Atmane challenged him in the Round of 16, Sinner has barely flinched. On the other hand, de Minaur defeated Yunchaokete Bu and Arthur Rinderknech with scintillating tennis. His quarterfinal encounter against Jakub Mensik was cut short due to injury. The 26-year-old’s 73% success rate in 2025 matches up well to the former World No. 1, who achieved 300 tour-level wins before heading to Beijing.
Sinner has an impeccable 10-0 record in the head-to-head against de Minaur so far. Another incredible statistic is the fact that the Italian powerhouse has dropped merely one set across these encounters against the Australian speed machine.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Australian Open | Quarterfinal | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-2 6-1 |
| 2024 Davis Cup | Semifinal | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024 ATP Finals | Round Robin | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024 Rotterdam | Final | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2023 Davis Cup | Final | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-0 |
| 2023 Toronto | Final | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022 Madrid | Round of 32 | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022 Australian Open | Round of 16 | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4 |
| 2020 Sofia | Quarterfinal | Jannik Sinner | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-1 |
| 2019 Next Gen Finals | Final | Jannik Sinner | 4-2 4-1 4-2 |
| Jannik Sinner | Category | Alex de Minaur |
| 2 | Current Ranking | 8 |
| 303-85 | Career W-L Record | 294-172 |
| 40-5 | YTD W-L Record | 45-17 |
| 20 | Career Titles | 10 |
| 2 | YTD Titles | 1 |
| 4 | Grand Slams | 0 |
One of the nagging issues for de Minaur, is the fact that his counter-attacking style seldom draws success against Sinner. With the groundstroke quality that the 24-year-old possesses, it takes someone who fights fire with fire to displace him. Moreover, Sinner is defending runner-up points in Beijing this week, and will be determined to go one step further in order to stay in touching distance with Alcaraz. Whether or not de Minaur can pull a rabbit out of the hat, remains to be seen.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner in straight sets.
Sinner is clearly dominating the pre-match betting market, with odds of 1/8 to win. On the other hand, de Minaur is languishing as a firm underdog with his 21/4 odds. The implied probability on the money line suggests an 80-20 in favor of the Italian No. 1 so far. Here are the pre-match betting odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Mike Frey, Imagn Images)
