Italy vs Estonia Preview, Betting Odds and Predictions – 05/09/25

Italy will be determined to revive their World Cup 2026 qualifying hopes when they host Estonia in Bergamo on Friday evening. Trailing nine points behind Group I leaders, the Azzurri are under immense pressure to earn maximum points in this clash.

After back-to-back qualification failures for the World Cup, Italy cannot afford any more setbacks this time around. With a new head coach at the helm, they are aiming to put their campaign back on track against an opponent they have historically dominated.

The coach's thoughts ahead of tomorrow's game 🎙️#Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/ZF5VV1CbBi
— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@Azzurri_En) September 4, 2025

Italy vs Estonia Best Bets

Bets	Status	Moneyline
Total Goals	Under 2.5	+235
Total Shots	Over 24.5	-275
Total Shots on Target	Over 8.5	-357
Total Corners	Under 8.5	+155
Total Cards	Over 3.5	Evens

Italy vs Estonia Preview

Italy

New boss Gennaro Gattuso plans to switch back to a four-man defense following the struggles under Spalletti’s system. Gianluigi Donnarumma, now a Manchester City player, will start in goal. Francesco Pio Esposito, Giovanni Fabbian, and Giovanni Leoni are set for their first senior call-ups but may begin the match on the bench. Up front, Mateo Retegui competes with Moise Kean, Giacomo Raspadori, and the returning Gianluca Scamacca for a starting role.

Also Read: Liverpool Exclude Star Forward From Their 22-Man Champions League Squad

Estonia

Estonia head coach Jurgen Henn has named a 26-man squad. However, captain Karol Mets will miss out because of an injury. Arsenal goalkeeper Karl Hein, currently on loan at Werder Bremen, will likely feature in goal, while Maksim Paskotsi is expected to anchor the defense. Veteran forward Henri Anier offers experience in attack. But Rauno Sappinen is expected to lead the line as Estonia seek an unlikely upset.

Italy vs Estonia Over/ Under Predictions

Total Goals Under 2.5 @ +235 as per BetMGM:

Italy are clearly mismatched against Estonia and will be expected to secure a straightforward win. Yet, with the Azzurri have recently struggled in World Cup qualifying games. They’ve registered just six goals scored in their previous five matches. With their record and Estonia’s knack for keeping scorelines modest, a low-scoring affair seems plausible. Indeed, Estonia have conceded an average of only two goals per game in qualifiers so far. Hence, bettors are leaning towards the under 2.5 market as a value option.

Italy vs Estonia Player Picks

Mateo Retegui to score anytime @ -240 as per FanDuel:

One expected betting angle is staking on Mateo Retegui to score at any time. Fresh from a brace for his club Al-Qadisah over the weekend, he is arriving with momentum and motivation. With Gennaro Gattuso seeking an offensive spark under new management, Retegui has a strong case to feature prominently. This makes the -240 odds on his anytime strike look justifiable .

Moise Kean to either score or assist anytime @ -350 as per FanDuel:

Another compelling player-market is Moise Kean to get involved directly to contribute to a goal at anytime during the match. Kean is in the selection mix alongside Retegui, Raspadori, and Scamacca up front. With Gattuso reshuffling for a more attacking setup, Kean is primed for impact. The -350 odds reflect his clear likelihood of contributing productively in what is expected to be a controlled Italian performance.

Italy vs Estonia Predictions

Picks	Moneyline
Mateo Retegui to score first	+230
Moise Kean to score anytime	-230
Daniel Maldini to assist anytime	+120
Giacomo Raspadori to either score or assist	-290
Maksim Paskotsi to see a card	+210

Also Read: Veteran Winger Willian Returns to Brazil With Gremio

The Azzurri rebounded with a 2-0 win against Moldova to break a winless streak in their last match. They now face an opponent, Estonia, who have lost four of their last five matches. Estonia are also still winless in seven head-to-head encounters.

Final Prediction: Italy 2-0 Estonia

Looking at recent form and looming stakes, Italy should edge a confident but not overwhelming 2-0 win. Backed by home advantage and defensive solidity under Gattuso, Italy look set to notch a clean-sheet win.

Moumita Dutta

soccer

Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.