Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks First Round Game 1 Predictions, Odds, Bets & Stats – 04/19/2025

On Saturday, 04/19, the Indiana Pacers (50-32) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (48-34) in Game 1 of the First Round in the NBA Playoffs. The Pacers finished with the fourth seed while the Bucks finished with the fifth seed.

Will the Bucks start on a bang and avenge the hurt of the 2024 playoffs? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.

Where to Watch Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

Time: 1:00 PM (ET)
Venue: Gaibridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Indiana)
Where to watch: This game can be viewed on the NBA League Pass.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Match Preview

And we meet again….

The Milwaaukee Bucks won the season series 3-1, hitting the 120-point mark during all the wins. Meanwhile, their only loss came by 1 point, indicating their great read of the opponent here. Giannis Antetokounmpo plays with a chip on his shoulder after suffering a 2-4 series loss in the first round of the 2024 playoffs. But there is a hitch. The Bucks are without their second-best scorer, Damian Lillard, who nailed 6 triples in their third win of the season against the Pacers.

Kevin Porter Jr. has provided some stellar play off the bench at the guard position, but the Pacers’ backcourt is too much to deal with in the absence of Lillard. Apart from that, the Pacers have played much better ball than the Bucks in the second half of the season, especially defensively. They conceded 113.3 points per game (11th best) in the last fifteen games, compared to their season tally of 115.1 PPG(17th). The gains may look marginal, but they matter a lot.

Meanwhile, the Bucks regressed as a defensive unit, giving up 114.7 PPG (13th) in the last 15 games, compared to the season tally of 113 PPG. Meanwhile, offensively, both teams did well on the offensive end for most parts, but the Pacers were 4th compared to 11th in PPG during the last 15 games.

Match-ups

The guard rotations are completely in favor of Indiana here. They can deploy two consistent scorers, Benedict Mathurin and Tyrese Haliburton. Meanwhile, Andrew Nembhard can also launch double-digit scores. Meanwhile, the Bucks have a decisive edge with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the frontcourt, but the Pacers also have a strong combination spearheaded by Pascal Siakam.

The Wing match-up between Pacers’ Aaron Nesmith and Bucks’ Kyle Kuzma is an interesting one, too. Meanwhile, Pacers’ C Myles Turner can pinch out an edge over Bucks C Brook Lopez, but both are similar archetypes. The Bucks will hope Bobby Portis acts as a huge factor off the bench to curb the guard advantage for the Pacers.

Pacers Expected Starting Lineup

PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner

Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PG: TJ McConnell, SF: Jarace Walker, PF: Obi Toppin

Injuries/Updates: Isaiah Jackson is OUT for the game.

Bucks Expected Starting Lineup

SG: Ryan Rollins | SG/SF: Taurean Prince | SF: Kyle Kuzma | PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo | C: Brook Lopez

Key bench players: SG: Gary Trent Jr., PG: Kevin Porter Jr., SG: AJ Green, PF: Bobby Portis

Injuries/Updates: Domain Lillard is OUT for the playoffs.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Total Over/Under Prediction

The season series between the two yielded 230+ points games as the offensive exchange was high from both squads. But the physical nature of the playoffs can often bring down scoring, even when two offensive stalwarts cross swords. The Pacers may be more comfortable with a three-point fast pace. Meanwhile, the Bucks may prefer the half-court game considering their ageing frontline. Overall, I see a mix of both, and scoring going past 230 despite the playoff intensity.

Total: Over 225.5 for +100 at BetMGM
Bucks: Points Over 111.5 for +110 at BetMGM

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Player Props Predictions- Projected Top Bets & Odds

Tyrese Haliburton to dish over 10.5 assists: Haliburton averaged 9.2 assists per game this season. He tallied 10.6 APG against the Bucks in three games, and I expect him to go past the mark here.

Benedict Mathurin to score over 16.5 points: The evolving guard put up 16.1 PPG during the season, averaging 17 PPG against the Bucks in four games this season. I believe he will be in the 17-19 range here.

Giannis Antetokounmpo to score over 32.5 points for -110: The superstar forward averaged 30.4 PPG during the season. He hit the 32.7 PPG mark against the Pacers in four games. I expect him to repeat such heroics here, too.

Main pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 points for -110 at BetMGM

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Match Prediction

The Pacers have a distinct backcourt and home-court advantage here. But write off Giannis Antetokounmpo at your own peril. The memories of the 2024 playoffs defeat must be fresh on his mind. He is the type of athlete who knows how to take revenge. Thus, I expect him to begin the series on a bang and upset the bookmakers here. The Bucks may spring a surprise here and win by 3-5 points, but that doesn’t mean they will win the series.

Safe Spread Pick: Bucks +3.5 for +118 at BetMGM

Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Shubham Singh

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Hi, I am Shubham. I am currently an NBA Predictions Writer on The Playoffs. I enjoy this job because it helps keep me in the loop about the game I love while fulfilling the pleasure I derive from stats. I got into NBA writing through social media interactions in the mid-2010s as I shared my takes on young talents such as D’Angelo Russell. I hope you enjoy reading my pieces as much as Dennis Rodman loved rebounding the basketball!