Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors First Round Game 1 Predictions, Odds, Bets & Stats – 04/20/2025

On Sunday, 04/20, the Houston Rockets (52-30) will host the Golden State Warriors (48-34) in Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA Playoffs. The Rockets finished with an impressive second seed while the Warriors confidently seized the seventh seed during the play-in tournament. Will the sturdy Rockets fend off the resolute Warriors? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.

Where to Watch Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

Time: 6:30 PM (PT)
Venue: Toyota Center (Houston, Texas)
Where to watch: This game can be viewed on the NBA League Pass.

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Match Preview

Great comeback from both teams

Houston Rockets: The Rockets finished with a three-game losing streak because they placed a third-string lineup in the second halves after seizing the second seed. They had enjoyed a 15-2 spell before that, including a 9-game winning streak. The Rockets did a fantastic job of turning their season around after an underwhelming 5–11 record, but a 32-14 start ensured they remain an elite team. Houston’s rise has made the Western Conference even more difficult.

Golden State Warriors: The Warriors will enter the match after a 5-point win against the Memphis Grizzlies, but their win was much more decisive than the margin suggests. The team acquired Jimmy Butler during the midseason, which is the reason why they are entering the playoffs. They had a sub-par 25-26 record at one point, but Butler helped them to a 23-8 run. They will enter this game with a lot of confidence.

Match-ups: The Rockets more well-rounded but the Warriors have experience

The biggest match-up advantage the Rockets have is at center with Alperen Sengun. Warriors’ defensive ace Draymond Green has the tools to shut down Sengun, but he has a lot of offensive tools to overcome him. Meanwhile, Jalen Green will aim to outplay Stephen Curry in what can be the most mouth-watering duel of the series.

The Rockets’ perimeter defense with Green, Fred Van Vleet, and Dillon Brooks is impressive. They did a fantastic job of holding back Curry, and shut him down for just 3 points just a couple of weeks ago.

Houston is also blessed with athletic Amen Thompson, who can contain Jimmy Butler, who has been in superb form. Players like Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody are X-factors here. The same goes for Rockets’ forwards Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr.

Rockets Expected Starting Lineup

PG: Fred Van Vleet | SG: Jalen Green | SF: Dillon brooks | PF: Amen Thompson | C: Alperen Sengun

Key bench players: SF: Tari Eason, PF: Jabari Smith Jr., C: Steven Adams

Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report

Warriors Expected Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry | SG: Brandin Podziemski | SG/SF: Moses Moody | SF: Jimmy Butler | PF/C: Draymond Green

Key bench players: SG: Buddy Hield, PG: Gary Payton II, SF: Jonathan Kuminga, C: Quinten Post

Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report.

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Total Over/Under Prediction

Both teams were unable to hit the 110-point mark during their last three battles. They have played three games now below the 205-point mark. It implies the defensive nature of both squads and can become even more accentuated in the postseason scenario. Thus, you can expect a low scorer here, but I see the score going past 215.

Golden State Warriors: Points: Over 107.5 for +105 at BetMGM
Total: Over 214.5 for +105 at BetMGM

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Player Props Predictions- Projected Top Bets & Odds

Stephen Curry to score over 25.5 points: Curry averaged just 16.3 PPG in three games against the Rockets but had a 37-point game in the play-in game versus the Memphis Grizzlies. I expect him to bury his woes against Houston and come up with a 25+ points effort.

Jalen Green to score over 21.5 points: The Rockets’ off-guard averaged 21 PPG during the season, but just 14 PPG against the Warriors in four games. I expect him to break the shoddy trend and believe he will be in the 22-25 range here.

Jimmy Butler to dish over 6.5 assists: Butler has averaged over 5 assists per game as a Warriors guard. He dished 6 in the play-in qualifier game, and I expect him to dish 7-8 assists.

Main pick: Stephen Curry O 25.5 for -110 at BetMGM

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Match Prediction

The Rockets have done a fantastic job against Curry thus far, who has one of the hottest hands right now. They have the home-court advantage, an athletically blessed team fit to counter an ageing squad. However, we can’t ignore Jimmy Butler, who elevates his game during the postseason window, and he will be hungry to prove a point here. I believe the Dubs will get a one-up here, winning the game by 4-6 points.

Safe Spread Pick: Warriors -1.5 for +110 at BetMGM

Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Shubham Singh

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Hi, I am Shubham. I am currently an NBA Predictions Writer on The Playoffs. I enjoy this job because it helps keep me in the loop about the game I love while fulfilling the pleasure I derive from stats. I got into NBA writing through social media interactions in the mid-2010s as I shared my takes on young talents such as D’Angelo Russell. I hope you enjoy reading my pieces as much as Dennis Rodman loved rebounding the basketball!