Can the Frenchman knock out another title candidate?
No. 10 seed Holger Rune takes on giant killer Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in a highly anticipated Round of 16 fixture at the 2025 Rolex Shanghai Masters on Tuesday. After beating another Frenchman in Humbert during the third round, Rune will be hoping to go back-to-back. On the other hand, Mpetshi Perricard knocked out World No. 4 Fritz in his last match. The winner of this match will face either Tallon Griekspoor or Valentin Vacherot in the last eight stage. Follow BetMGM for all your updates on the betting market in tennis.
Yet to drop a set this week, Holger Rune is slowly but surely regaining his hard court form. The 22-year-old reached the quarterfinals in Tokyo last week, and will be desperate to perform even better in Shanghai. A winner of two hard court titles, including a Masters-1000 in Paris, Rune has won 81% service games on hard courts this year. Although his only title came at the Barcelona Open, the Danish prodigy also reached the final of Indian Wells in March. He has beaten Baez and Humbert in straight sets at Shanghai.
One of the biggest serve machines on tour, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard outlasted Taylor Fritz in a blockbuster Round of 16 battle. The 6’7” giant has hit over 450 aces this year, winning 88% of his service games in the process. Two semifinals in Brisbane and Winston-Salem happen to be the 22-year-old’s best performances of the season. Currently ranked No. 37 in the world, Mpetshi-Perricard is the third best French player in the world at present. He has a win-loss record of 16-21 in 2025.
The head-to-head record between Holger Rune and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is 1-1. The Round of 16 match-up at the Shanghai Masters is set to be their third meeting on hard courts, and second this year.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Toronto | Round of 64 | Holger Rune | 7-6(7) 6-3 |
| 2024 Basel | Semifinal | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| Holger Rune | Category | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard |
| 11 | Current Ranking | 37 |
| 172-105 | Career W-L Record | 34-36 |
| 33-20 | YTD W-L Record | 16-21 |
| 5 | Career Titles | 2 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
One of the determining factors in this match will be whether Rune can make inroads on the Mpetshi Perricard serve. While the Frenchman has an extraordinary service motion, his return game can occasionally be equally weak. Fans can expect at least one tiebreak in this encounter, as both players will prioritize their own service games. As the average rally length increases, so will the chances of Rune advancing to the quarterfinal stage.
Prediction: Holger Rune in three sets.
Rune (11/25) is a strong favorite over underdog Mpetshi Perricard (37/20) in the 2025 Shanghai Masters pre-quarterfinals. According to the implied probability on the money line, the Dane has an 81% chance of advancing to the quarterfinal stage. Take a look at the betting market (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images)
