Mandatory Credit: Imagn Images

Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar Overtake Arch Manning As New Favorites for the Top Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft

Arch Manning's 2025 debut as starter falls short

Mandatory Credit: Imagn Images

Hailing from the legendary Manning family, the next-in-line for a reputed NFL career under center, Arch Manning was the overwhelming favorite to go first overall in the 2026 NFL draft even before the college football season began.

With Manning being named as the starter for the 2025 season by the Texas Longhorns, all eyes in college football will be on the youngster. With a grandfather who played quarterback in the NFL and two decorated uncles in Peyton and Eli, the pressure rests on their nephew to take the name forward.

Arch Manning Gets New Season Off to a Rocky Start

With the spotlight shining brightly on him in the first game of the new season, Manning got the Longhorns’ campaign off to a poor start against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Granted, the Buckeyes are the defending College Football Playoff National Champions, but even so, he has put his chances of going number one overall in jeopardy after his performance on Saturday.

Manning went 17 of 30 for 170 yards that included 1 touchdown and 1 interception as the Longhorns lost 14-7 in the opening game of the season. Of course, declaring for the 2026 NFL draft is highly unlikely, as the Manning clan’s plan involves young Arch to play out his four years of college eligibility.

ARCH MANNING IS PICKED OFF 😱

The @ohiostatefb defense comes up with another massive play 😤 pic.twitter.com/5yaBXYZrQm
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 30, 2025

But, should he consider entering the draft for next year, he will have to up his performance quite a bit, as LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State signal caller Drew Allar have put themselves in pole position after their respective games.

Nussmeier and Allar Are the New Favorites to Go First Overall

Leading the charge after the first game of the 2025 college football season are quarterbacks Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar. Both signal callers now have +350 odds to go first overall in the 2026 NFL draft.

Nussmeier, who plays under center for the LSU Tigers, had an outstanding game against the number 4th-ranked Clemson Tigers. The 23-year-old Louisiana native completed 28 of 38 passes for 230 yards, including 1 touchdown, leading his team to a 17-10 win.

Every Garrett Nussmeier pass against Clemson. pic.twitter.com/1gBpvJsJ2Y
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) August 31, 2025

As for 21-year-old Allar, he led the Penn State Nittany Lions to a comfortable win over the lowly Nevada Wolf Pack. Allar missed only 4 passes, going 22 of 26 for 217 yards and a touchdown as the Nittany Lions crushed the Wolf Pack by a score of 46-11. The blowout scoreline even enabled Allar to retire to the bench in the fourth quarter.

A big knock on Drew Allar is how often his lower body and upper body can be disconnected. For him to flip his hips around and make this throw … impressive. pic.twitter.com/6Pb2JQaBA4
— Chris Halicke (@ChrisHalicke) August 30, 2025

As per the latest odds, Manning is now in the fifth spot to go first overall next year at +700. There is still plenty of time for the former Isidore Newman quarterback to find his feet at this level. For the moment, though, Nussmeier and Allar have surged ahead, and it will be fascinating to see how the season progresses.

Mandatory Credit: Imagn Images

Arch Manning

College Football

Drew Allar

Garrett Nussmeier

Devavrat Kulkarni

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I am a content writer for the NFL team, and joined The Playoffs after working with Sportskeeda and NFL Analysis as an NFL writer. After starting my professional career as a French-to-English translator, working as a content writer is a new adventure for me. I started out in the sports media field for two main reasons: my love for sports in general, especially the NFL, NBA, and Tennis, as well as my passion for writing. The best part of this job is that I get to write a variety of pieces with the freedom to explore content from various angles. It also enables me to stay up to date with the sporting world, which otherwise can be difficult to do in the day-to-day grind. In a world full of chaos, sports unite and entertain like nothing else!