Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Preview, Predictions, and Betting Odds – Week 4 2025-26 NFL Season

The Atlanta Falcons are set to take on the Washington Commanders for Week 4 action, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. This Falcons are coming into this game after getting shut out by the Carolina Panthers in Week 3, which frankly no one expected. Meanwhile, the Commanders blew out the Las Vegas Raiders last week, thoroughly shutting down Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty, and the rest of the group.

See y'all tomorrow pic.twitter.com/eqUUebhr5V
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) September 27, 2025

In this NFC East vs NFC South matchup, we’ll see who comes out on top as the Commanders are missing some of their key players for this clash.

Recommended Bets	FanDuel	BetMGM
Bijan Robinson Anytime TD scorer	-185	-185
Marcus Mariota Under 30.5 passing attempts	-114	-130
Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 interceptions	-130	-125

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Rationale and Analysis

Bijan Robinson is a strong anytime TD bet vs. the Commanders. Despite no rushing scores yet (47 attempts, 239 yards, 14 receptions), he has one receiving TD and excels in the pass game. Atlanta’s run-heavy scheme targets him near the goal line, and even though Washington’s improved defensively this season, they are still vulnerable to rushing attacks. His explosive runs could exploit gaps leaving room for him to score.

Falcons are surprisingly the number one team in the NFL in terms of passing defense. Looking at this we believe that the Commanders will try to run with the ball more where Atlanta ranks 10th and has allowed 2 TDs. Looking at this, it is safe to assume that Mariota will attempt a lot less passes in this game, in order to avoid costly turnovers.

Michael Penix Jr. has the worst game of his season against the Panthers last game, completing 50.0 % of his passes, 172 passing yards, and zero TDs. He had a QB rating of 40.5 and threw 2 interceptions, leading to the Falcons getting shut out. The Commanders, while still vulnerable defensively, sacked Geno Smith 5 times last game, trying to build off that momentum this week.

Falcons vs Commanders Preview

The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) host the Washington Commanders (2-1) in a pivotal Week 4 clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta seeks redemption after a humiliating 30-0 shutout loss to Carolina with Michael Penix Jr. under pressure amid offensive woes and a fired WR coach.

Washington, riding a four-game win streak over Atlanta, turns to Marcus Mariota with Jayden Daniels sidelines, yet again. Their stout defensive unit will try to disrupt Penix, while running a run-heavy game, testing Atlanta’s secondary.

24 hours till game time ⏳ pic.twitter.com/0leilsv10U
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) September 27, 2025

Falcons vs Commanders Prediction

The Falcons are coming off a tough matchup against the Panthers and we never expected them to score zero points. Their offensive woes last week and the firing of their WR coach, including moving their offensive coordinator down to the sidelines, makes us believe that the Commanders will run away with this game.

Prediction: Commanders win 23-20

Falcons vs Commanders Betting Odds

Here are the best bets and over/under betting odds for the Atlanta Falcons and the Washington Commanders, as per BetMGM

Atlanta Falcons Over/Under Odds

Below are over/under odds for the Atlanta Falcons, as per BetMGM

Over/Under Bets	Over	Under
Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards	220.5 (-115)	220.5 (-115)
Drake London Receiving Yards	62.5 (-115)	62.5 (-115)
Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards	80.5 (-115)	80.5 (-115)

Atlanta Falcons Best Player Bets

Listed below are some of the best player bets for the Atlanta Falcons, as per BetMGM

Michael Penix Jr. Under 1.5 passing TD: -175
Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 Interceptions thrown: -125
Bijan Robinson Under 18.5 rushing attempts: -135

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Washington Commanders Over/Under Odds

Below are over/under odds for the Washington Commanders, as per BetMGM

Over/Under Bets	Over	Under
Marcus Mariota Passing Yards	197.5 (-115)	197.5 (-115)
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards	51.5 (-115)	51.5 (-115)
Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards	32.5 (-118)	32.5 (-115)

Washington Commanders Best Player Bets

Below are some of the best player bets for the Washington Commanders, as per BetMGM

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 8.5 rushing attempts: -130
Deebo Samuels Under 5.5 receptions made: -155
Marcus Mariota Over 18.5 pass completions: -125

Falcons vs Commanders Spread and Betting Odds

The spread and the moneyline shows that the Falcons are the slight favorites to win this matchup against the Commanders, as per BetMGM

Teams	Spread	Total Points	Moneyline
Commanders	+2.5 (-110)	43.5 (-110)	+118
Falcons	-2.5 (-110)	43.5 (-110)	-140

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(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

FAQs

Who is favored to win between the Falcons and the Commanders?
The Falcons are slim 2.5-points favorites over the Commanders.

What is the over/under total for the game?
The over/under for total points is set at 43.5.

What is the predicted score for the game between the Falcons vs Commanders?
We predict that the Commanders will walk away with a victory 23-20 over the Falcons.

Eric Divakaran

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I cover the National Football League and things cannot get better than that. I always dreamed to play football or basketball professionally since I’m built like a Running Back. But now that I can’t, since I’m technically in the “Unc” age, I thought why not pick a career in sports industry? So here I am, doing what I love, and hoping that the Commanders win the Super Bowl. I give love to players when it’s due, but can be critical about their performances at the same time. Enough about me, now let my articles do all the talking.