On Saturday, 04/19, the Denver Nuggets (50-32) will host the Los Angeles Clippers (50-32) in Game 1 of the First Round in the NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets finished with the fourth seed while the Clippers finished with the fifth seed. Who will come out on top in the clash of the veterans? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
Two different halves of the season
Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets will enter the series after ending the Regular Season with a three-game winning streak. However, they had underwhelming returns prior to that. The squad suffered a four-game losing streak and had a 13-13 record since the third week of February after an impressive 37-19 start. Their defense has been a huge concern. In March, they gave up 119 points per game(9th worst). The team lacked the effort to close out games, which curbed their chances to seize the second seed in the West.
LA Clippers: The Clippers finished the season with an impressive 8-game winning streak. They were on fire throughout the second half of the season. The squad had an impressive 18-3 record since the second week of March, showcasing huge improvements. They were one of the best defensive squads throughout the season. This season, they gave up 107.6 PPG (4th best), indicating their lockdown prowess.
Match-ups: The Nuggets have their work cut out
Nikola Jokic’s position at the center is a huge match-up advantage for the Nuggets, but Clippers’ big Ivica Zubac has been amazing, too. Meanwhile, the Point Guard battle between Jamal Murray and James Harden is crucial. Clearly, Harden has had a much better season and is a much better floor manager than Murray, but the latter doesn’t have a Floor General role either.
Nuggets Wing Michael Porter Jr. will have to be wary of Kawhi Leonard as the latter is a much better player on both ends. Aaron Gordon will be key for the Nuggets to extract the advantage. Meanwhile, the Clippers will hope Norman Powell recovers from his injury and is more consistent. Christian Braun can be a big difference-maker at the off-guard position for the Nuggets.
Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook can be an X-Factor for them. Meanwhile, the Clippers will hope Bogdan Bogdanovic hits a couple of shots in either half to cover up their depth holes.
Nuggets Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jamal Murray | SG: Christian Braun | SF: Michael Porter Jr. | PF: Aaron Gordon | C: Nikola Jokic
Key bench players: SG: Julian Strawther, PG: Russell Westbrook.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
Clippers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: James Harden | SG: Kris Dunn | SF: Kawhi Leonard | SF: Norman Powell | C: Ivica Zubac
Key bench players: SF: Derrick Jones Jr., SG: Bogdan Bogdanovic, PG: Ben Simmons.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
The Clippers-Nuggets clashes produced 213, 248, 218, and 229 points. These scores indicate that the teams have gone through low, mid, and high scoring terrain. The Nuggets scored 120 or more in three games, while the Clippers only breached the mark once. But things have changed. LA has become a much better offensive team lately. However, I see the total not being on the high side and can hover in the 219-226 range. The bookmakers have placed over/under identical around 224-225, which aligns with the view here. I will prefer the “under” here.
Nikola Jokic to scoop up over 14.5 rebounds: The Joker pulled down 10 RPG against the Clippers in three games, way below his season mark of 12.7 RPG. I believe Jokic will have a big rebounding night here.
Ivica Zubac to pull down over 13.5 rebounds: Zubac’s season rebounding tally of 12.6 RPG was just behind Jokic’s. He clamped down 11 RPG against the Nuggets this season in four games. I believe he will exceed that mark by 3-4 rebounds.
Michael Porter Jr. to knock down over 2.5 threes: MPJ averaged 2.5 made threes per game this season. Meanwhile, he hit 1.5 threes on just a 31.6% clip. However, I see him nailing over 2 threes on a 40%-ish shooting from deep.
Main pick: Michael Porter O 2.5 triples for +100 at BetMGM
The Nuggets have not done well lately, even on their home turf. The Clippers are the worst type of opponents for them as they are both experienced and confident. However, apart from the Joker, Denver also has a bunch of unpredictable can turn the games around single-handedly. But will they be able to fend off a team that is packed on both ends? I see a close game with Jokic sneaking a clutch win.
Safe Spread Pick: Nuggets -2.5 for -110 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn ImagesPhoto Credit:
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