First indoor hard court meeting between the two rivals.
2020 champion Daniil Medvedev will feature in the pre-quarterfinals of the ATP Paris Masters 2025, as he gets set to take on Italian powerhouse Lorenzo Sonego. The 30-year-old defeated national compatriot Lorenzo Musetti in the second round to reach this stage. The winner of this encounter will lock horns with either Alexander Zverev or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the quarterfinals on Friday. Continue reading to know more about the match statistics, prediction and betting odds (via BetMGM).
After comfortably sailing past Jaume Munar in Round-1, Daniil Medvedev received a walkover in the Round of 32 due to Grigor Dimitrov’s withdrawal. The No. 11 seed is still fighting for a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals. Despite winning just one match across the Grand Slam events in 2025, Medvedev has patched up a commendable recovery during the season. He followed up an impressive semifinal outing in Marseille with another final four finish at Indian Wells. A championship run in Almaty and runner-up trophy at Halle gave the Russian a 64.5% success rate.
Lorenzo Sonego reached his maiden quarterfinal at the majors during this year’s Australian Open. Having been on the brink of Top-20 at one stage, the 30-year-old currently sits at No. 45 in the world. Between the end of February and the last stretch of June, Sonego managed to pick up just three victories on tour. His other noteworthy achievements this year include a Round of 16 appearance at Wimbledon and quarterfinal in Stockholm. So far this week, Sonego has earned two impressive victories against Sebastian Korda and Lorenzo Musetti.
Medvedev has a dominant 3-0 record in the head-to-head against Sonego. While the Russian superstar has beaten him twice on hard courts in the past, the Paris Masters Round of 16 will be their first meeting on an indoor court.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2024 Dubai | Round of 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023 Monte Carlo | Round of 32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023 Adelaide | Round of 32 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(6) 2-1 RET. |
| Daniil Medvedev | Category | Lorenzo Sonego |
| 13 | Current Ranking | 45 |
| 419-179 | Career W-L Record | 164-182 |
| 40-22 | YTD W-L Record | 22-27 |
| 21 | Career Titles | 4 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 0 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
The match-up on Thursday will be one of fire and ice. Sonego likes to enforce his style of play and dominate proceedings by taking the ball early. On the other hand, Medvedev will adopt a deep stance and absorb all the pace of his opponent. The slow nature of the court means that the Russian will have extra time on the ball – which plays into his hands. With his experience of winning this event in the past, he starts as the favorite.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev in straight sets.
Medvedev (1/4) is the strong favorite ahead of underdog Sonego (14/5) in the ATP Paris Masters 2025 Round of 16. According to the implied probability on the money line, the former US Open champion has a 74% chance of winning. Take a look at the odds for the match result and in-match specifics (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images)
