$1,500
Russian Grand Slam champion takes on the prodigious American talent.
With flashbacks of last year’s upset still relatively fresh in his memory, Daniil Medvedev will square off against Learner Tien in the Australian Open 2026 Round of 16. The American southpaw has seen his graph rise exponentially over the past twelve months, and will be eyeing a maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal entry on Sunday. But with the 11th seed back to his best form in Melbourne Park, it is hard to split the two competitors apart.
A former US Open champion and three-time Australian Open runner-up, Daniil Medvedev suffered a major drop in level during the 2025 campaign. Having dropped out of the Top-10 for the first time in over half a decade, the Russian currently sits at No. 12 in the world. He began the ongoing season at 5-0 with a championship run in Brisbane. Medvedev defeated Jesper de Jong, Quentin Halys and Fabian Marozsan en route to the Round of 16.
Learner Tien is the fourth best American as per the ATP Rankings. The 20-year-old lost the final in Beijing last year, before claiming a first tour-level title at the Moselle Open in November. Currently ranked No. 29 in the world, Tien has a career win-loss record of 42-31, including five Top-10 wins in just one year. Entering the Australian Open as the 25th seed, he beat Marcos Giron, Alexander Shevchenko and Nuno Borges to book his spot in the pre-quarterfinals.
According to the tennis betting odds on BetMGM, Daniil Medvedev is the favorite to win this encounter at -225. Learner Tien is the underdog with pre-match odds of +175 on the BetMGM moneyline. Here’s how we are betting on this Round of 16 battle at the Australian Open 2026, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Given below are the latest odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | BetMGM | FanDuel |
| Moneyline | Medvedev (-225), Tien (+175) | Medvedev (-245), Tien (+198) |
| Game Handicap | Medvedev -4.5 (+100), Tien +4.5 (-125) | Medvedev -4.5 (-110), Tien +4.5 (-120) |
| Total Games | >38.5 (-106), <38.5 (-121) | >37.5 (-118), <37.5 (-112) |
| Set Betting | Medvedev 3-0 (+210), Medvedev 3-1 (+295) | Medvedev 3-0 (+210), Medvedev 3-1 (+290) |
Our Pick: Daniil Medvedev -1.5 Sets at -120
Both stylistically and in terms of mental game plan, Medvedev and Tien could not be more different than one another. This is arguably why all their matches have gone the distance so far. We are predicting a three sets to one victory in favor of the Russian, purely due to his experience and ability to outthink his opponents from the back of the court.
Medvedev will need to start well and impose himself on this duel in the early stages. Yet, he has also got a great record at winning the longer rallies and painting the lines when it matters most. Placing a bet on the match result or the handicaps will be unfavorable, as this rivalry has given us some unexpected scorelines in 2025. But a key piece of prediction that we have is a possible 3-0 or 3-1 win for the former World No. 1. This is why Medvedev with -1.5 set handicap at -120 is the best bet.
Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head against Learner Tien by 2-1.
Medvedev and Tien had three top notch face-offs in 2025. They are yet to play out a straight sets encounter, as every single match in the rivalry has gone the distance. The Australian Open 2026 pre-quarterfinal is set to be their second meeting at this event. It will also be the fourth time they face one another on an outdoor hard court.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Shanghai | Round of 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-4 |
| 2025 Beijing | Semifinal | Learner Tien | 5-7 7-5 4-0 RET. |
| 2025 Australian Open | Round of 64 | Learner Tien | 6-3 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 1-6 7-6(7) |
The Australian Open 2026 can be viewed live on a variety of streaming platforms and TV channels across the world. This includes Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport and TNT Sports – depending on where you are watching from.
| Date | January 25, 2026 |
| Time | Not Before 16:00 Local |
| Tournament | Australian Open 2026, Round of 16 |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne |
| TV/Streaming | Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport, TNT Sports |
(Image Credits: Mike Frey, Imagn Images)
