Russian Grand Slam champion takes on the prodigious American talent.
With flashbacks of last year’s upset still relatively fresh in his memory, Daniil Medvedev will square off against Learner Tien in the Australian Open 2026 Round of 16. The American southpaw has seen his graph rise exponentially over the past twelve months, and will be eyeing a maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal entry on Sunday. But with the 11th seed back to his best form in Melbourne Park, it is hard to split the two competitors apart.
A former US Open champion and three-time Australian Open runner-up, Daniil Medvedev suffered a major drop in level during the 2025 campaign. Having dropped out of the Top-10 for the first time in over half a decade, the Russian currently sits at No. 12 in the world. He began the ongoing season at 5-0 with a championship run in Brisbane. Medvedev defeated Jesper de Jong, Quentin Halys and Fabian Marozsan en route to the Round of 16.
Learner Tien is the fourth best American as per the ATP Rankings. The 20-year-old lost the final in Beijing last year, before claiming a first tour-level title at the Moselle Open in November. Currently ranked No. 29 in the world, Tien has a career win-loss record of 42-31, including five Top-10 wins in just one year. Entering the Australian Open as the 25th seed, he beat Marcos Giron, Alexander Shevchenko and Nuno Borges to book his spot in the pre-quarterfinals.
Daniil Medvedev and Learner Tien will renew one of the best rivalries of 2025, with each man in a new place, and with something different to prove.https://t.co/2xTsUaETa5
According to the tennis betting odds on BetMGM, Daniil Medvedev is the favorite to win this encounter at -225. Learner Tien is the underdog with pre-match odds of +175 on the BetMGM moneyline. Here’s how we are betting on this Round of 16 battle at the Australian Open 2026, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Australian Open 2026, Round of 16
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Men’s Singles, Best of Five Sets
Date & Start Time: January 25, Not Before 16:00 Local
Court: Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev -1.5 Sets @ -120 as per BetMGM
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Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Betting Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Predictions & Picks
Our Pick: Daniil Medvedev -1.5 Sets at -120
Both stylistically and in terms of mental game plan, Medvedev and Tien could not be more different than one another. This is arguably why all their matches have gone the distance so far. We are predicting a three sets to one victory in favor of the Russian, purely due to his experience and ability to outthink his opponents from the back of the court.
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Medvedev will need to start well and impose himself on this duel in the early stages. Yet, he has also got a great record at winning the longer rallies and painting the lines when it matters most. Placing a bet on the match result or the handicaps will be unfavorable, as this rivalry has given us some unexpected scorelines in 2025. But a key piece of prediction that we have is a possible 3-0 or 3-1 win for the former World No. 1. This is why Medvedev with -1.5 set handicap at -120 is the best bet.
Daniil Medvedev Recent Form
Brisbane International 2026: Winner
Paris Masters 2025: Quarterfinal
Erste Bank Open Vienna 2025: Round of 16
Almaty Open 2025: Winner
Shanghai Masters 2025: Semifinal
Medvedev on facing Learner Tien next at Australian Open:
“I know you have some history with Learner Tien. When you come off the court after a 5-set match like that and know that that's your reward. How do you feel about it?"
Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Head to Head Record
Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head against Learner Tien by 2-1.
Medvedev and Tien had three top notch face-offs in 2025. They are yet to play out a straight sets encounter, as every single match in the rivalry has gone the distance. The Australian Open 2026 pre-quarterfinal is set to be their second meeting at this event. It will also be the fourth time they face one another on an outdoor hard court.
Event
Round
Winner
Score
2025 Shanghai
Round of 16
Daniil Medvedev
7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-4
2025 Beijing
Semifinal
Learner Tien
5-7 7-5 4-0 RET.
2025 Australian Open
Round of 64
Learner Tien
6-3 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 1-6 7-6(7)
How to Watch Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien at the Australian Open 2026?
The Australian Open 2026 can be viewed live on a variety of streaming platforms and TV channels across the world. This includes Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport and TNT Sports – depending on where you are watching from.
Date
January 25, 2026
Time
Not Before 16:00 Local
Tournament
Australian Open 2026, Round of 16
Surface
Outdoor Hard Court
Court
Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne
TV/Streaming
Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport, TNT Sports
A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.
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