Daniil Medvedev vs. Corentin Moutet Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Almaty Open 2025 Final

Will Medvedev end his title drought or can Moutet claim his first trophy?

No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev will bid to end his drought of two years without a title, as he faces Frenchman Corentin Moutet in the ATP Almaty Open 2025 final on Sunday. The two players have contrasting game styles, and an interesting rivalry over the years. Will the precision and resilience of Medvedev outlast the guile and trickery of Moutet? We will find out very soon. Today, we look to break down the stats and records of this encounter, before BetMGM offers its key insights.

Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutet Match Preview

Tomorrow, Daniil Medvedev will go for a 21st career title in a 21st different city, which would extend his record for most titles without ever repeating anywhere pic.twitter.com/EYUutuuNeW
— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) October 18, 2025

Daniil Medvedev began his season with some mediocre outings, and never got going until the midpoint of the campaign. When it comes to the Grand Slams, the former US Open champion earned just one win across the four competitions. After reaching the semifinal at Indian Wells, Medvedev completed a runner-up finish in Halle. Since the US Open, the 29-year-old has impressed with two semifinals and now a summit clash in Kazakhstan. A former World No. 1 with a current ranking of No. 14 in the world, Medvedev has a 64% win ratio in 2025.

8 sets played. 0 sets dropped. 👀

Corentin Moutet continues his stellar form to beat No. 6 seed Michelsen 7-5 6-4 and reach a 3rd tour-level final! 🇫🇷 #AlmatyOpen pic.twitter.com/Z5QgJQFkvP
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 18, 2025

Corentin Moutet will hunt down his maiden tour-level title on Sunday. The French southpaw is one of the most entertaining players on the circuit – which justifies his former Top-40 status. This year, Moutet reached the final in Mallorca as well as semifinals in Washington DC and Hangzhou. The No. 8 seed is yet to drop a set this week – earning victories over the likes of Tomic, Shevchenko, Struff and Michelsen. He comes into the final with 77% service games won across the campaign, and 24% return games won.

Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutet Head to Head Record

The head-to-head between Medvedev and Moutet is 1-1. Their most recent encounter was in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Citi DC Open.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025 Washington	Quarterfinal	Corentin Moutet	1-6 6-4 6-4
2021 Mallorca	Round of 16	Daniil Medvedev	6-4 6-2

Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutet Career Comparison

Daniil Medvedev	Category	Corentin Moutet
14	Current Ranking	41
416-178	Career W-L Record	94-110
37-21	YTD W-L Record	30-21
20	Career Titles	0
0	YTD Titles	0
1	Grand Slams	0

Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutet ATP Almaty Open 2025 Prediction

After making a change to his coaching team, Daniil Medvedev has looked more assured in his game. The Russian has been landing first serves with more venom, and isn’t afraid to take the attack to his opponents. More than anything, his mental game seems to have improved massively in comparison to the beginning of the season. While Moutet defeated him just two months ago, we believe this version of the former World No. 1 is going to win quite comfortably.

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev in straight sets.

Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutet ATP Almaty Open 2025 Betting Odds

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Medvedev (1/3) is the favorite to win the ATP Almaty Open 2025 final against underdog Moutet (9/4). The Russian is likely to take the trophy in straight sets as per the pre-match market. According to the implied probability on the money line, Medvedev has a 75% chance of winning. Given below are all the important odds to know about (as per BetMGM):

Daniil Medvedev Win: 1/3
Corentin Moutet Win: 9/4

Total Games >22.5: 19/20
Moutet +3.5 (Game Handicap): 9/10
Medvedev -3.5 (Game Handicap): 17/20
Medvedev to Win By 2-0: 19/20
Medvedev -1.5 (Set Handicap): 19/20
Total Number of Tiebreaks <0.5: 3/5
Total Games By Moutet >11.5: 10/11
Total Games in Set-1 >9.5: 7/10
Medvedev to Win Set-1 By 6-4: 4/1
Most Service Breaks to Medvedev: 21/50

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Danielle Parhizkaran, Imagn Images)

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.