Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat First Round Game 1 Predictions, Odds, Bets & Stats – 04/20/2025

On Sunday, 04/20, the Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) will host the Miami Heat (37-45) in Game 1 of the First Round of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavaliers reigned as the first seed in the East, while the Heat earned the 8th seed during the play-in tournament. Will the veteran Heat stand any chance against the loaded Cavs? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.

Where to Watch Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat

Time: 7:00 PM (ET)
Venue: Rocket Arena (Cleveland, Ohio)
Where to watch: This game can be viewed on the NBA League Pass.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Match Preview

Opposite trajectories

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers were on pace to finish with the best record in the league, but lost their way during the last quarter of the season. They were 56-10 at one point, ahead of the Thunder, but then a four-game losing streak resulted in an 8-8 closing spell. Many have started doubting the Cavaliers as one of the title favorites due to that window, but the Cavs may be saving their best for the postseason.

Miami Heat: The Heat may not have finished with a respectable record, but they impressed with their gritty play at the tail-end of the season. They finished with an 8-4 run and entered the Play-in tournament without the home-court advantage. First, they blew out the Chicago Bulls on the road and then beat the Atlanta Hawks in Overtime. These two wins speak volumes about their character.

Match-ups: The Cavs have brilliant balance, the Heat are gritty

The Cavs have a rather traditional set-up in terms of size and role. Their ace, Donovan Mitchell, is recovering from an injury, and they need him back to have a decisive advantage. Heat’s scoring leader, Tyler Herro, is back in the groove, while Wing Andrew Wiggins can be a handful to deal with, too. Cavaliers will need Darius Garland to pull out some advantage in the backcourt.

Jarrett Allen will have to play his behind off to check Bam Adebayo, but Evan Mobley can help pinch an advantage against Kel’el Ware. De’Andre Hunter will be huge off the bench for the Cavs. Meanwhile, Heat’s bench guard Davion Mitchell has brought tremendous energy, while Haywood Highsmith has also done well.

The Heat look formidable these days, but the Cavaliers will be more locked in on the defensive end than their play-in opponents.

Cavaliers Expected Starting Lineup

PG: Darius Garland | SG: Donovan Mitchell | SF: Max Strus | PF: Evan Mobley | C: Jarrett Allen

Key bench players: SF: De’Andre Hunter, SF: Isaac Okoro.

Injuries/Updates: Donovan Mitchell is a Game-Time Decision.

Heat Expected Starting Lineup

PG: Tyler Herro | SG: Alec Burks | SF: Andrew Wiggins | PF/C: Bam Adebayo | C: Kel’el Ware

Key bench players: SG: Davion Mitchell, SG: Duncan Robinson, SF: Haywood Highsmith

Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Total Over/Under Prediction

The Heat has terrific defense, which ranked among the top ten again. Meanwhile, the Cavs had the best offense, averaging 121.9 points per game. They gave up around 115+ regularly, but I expect their defense to be much better here. The Heat usually struggles to get past 110, and I see it being the case here. However, I disagree with the bookmakers giving identical odds for them around just100 points. Overall, I see the score in mid-220s.

Miami Heat: Points: Over 102.5 for +115 at BetMGM
Total: Over 216.5 for +105 at BetMGM

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Player Props Predictions- Projected Top Bets & Odds

Tyler Herro to score over 26.5 points: Herro upped his game in the play-in tournament, scoring 30 and 38 during the two affairs. He averaged 28 PPG in the two games against the Cavs this season, and I believe he will be in a similar range here.

Darius Garland to dish over 7.5 assists: Garland averaged 6.7 APG this season and 7.5 APG in two games against the Heat this season. I believe he will hand out 7+ assists in this game.

Jarrett Allen to grab over 10.5 rebounds: The Cavaliers’ big man averaged 9.7 RPG this season. He pulled down 8.3 RPG in three against Miami. I expect him to clamp down 2-3 more rebounds than that number.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Match Prediction

The Cavaliers need Mitchell to field a stronger lineup. They have the tools to win without him, but Miami will come into this game with decent momentum. The Cavs can face some rust after a week’s rest, while the Heat just played a couple of nights ago, however, it also means that they will be well-rested. Overall, I expect a close battle, but I expect the Cavs to pull away in the closing moments.

The bookmakers have assigned identical odds around a -12.5 spread for the Cavs, but I think their win margin will be 8-10 points.

Safe Spread Pick: Heat +11.5 for +110 at BetMGM

Photo Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

Shubham Singh

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Hi, I am Shubham. I am currently an NBA Predictions Writer on The Playoffs. I enjoy this job because it helps keep me in the loop about the game I love while fulfilling the pleasure I derive from stats. I got into NBA writing through social media interactions in the mid-2010s as I shared my takes on young talents such as D’Angelo Russell. I hope you enjoy reading my pieces as much as Dennis Rodman loved rebounding the basketball!