On Tuesday, 04/27, the Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. The Cavaliers historically swept the Miami Heat during round one, whereas the Pacers made light work of the Milwaukee Bucks in five games. Can the No. 1 seed Cavs keep a deep Pacers at bay? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
The Pacers face an uphill climb, but they are ready for the job
The Cavaliers beat the Heat by 55 points in Game 4 and 37 in Game 3. No team has ever won this big in back-to-back games. The Cavs scored 120+ in all the games against a team with a top-ten defensive lineup in the Regular Season. That says it all.
Meanwhile, the Pacers faced fiercer resistance. However, they stamped a gentleman’s sweep too. Game 5 went to Overtime, but Tyrese Haliburton kept his cool to nail the game-winning shot. Apart from that, they had two wins by 19 or more points and lost Game 3 by 16 points.
However, the Bucks were a one-man army, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Cavs are far from that. Their ace Donovan Mitchell scored just 13 points in Game 3, and they won by 37! It shows immense depth. Darius Garland is a terrific shooter and playmaker whereas the frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is one of the best. Their bench with DeAndre Hunter and Ty Jerome has also played a decisive role.
The Pacers are also a den of talent. Haliburton has been in impeccable form, whereas his fellow guards, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, and Benedict Mathurin, are all capable starting-level players. Aaron Nesmith has been fantastic during the playoffs, whereas the frontline of Myles Turner and Pascal Siakam is as good as it gets.
Both teams are blessed with a wealth of talent and are deep at almost all positions. Thus, this series can be a long one, unlike the short and underwhelming first-round affairs.
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PG: TJ McConnell, SF: Jarace Walker, PF: Obi Toppin
Injuries/Updates: Isaiah Jackson is OUT for the game.
Cavaliers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Darius Garland | SG: Donovan Mitchell | SF: Max Strus | PF: Evan Mobley | C: Jarrett Allen
Key bench players: SG: Ty Jerome, SF: DeAndre Hunter,
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report.
Both teams are capable of scoring 120+ as they have a world of shot-creators. They can hit long-range bombs at a high rate and can also finish through contact. Thus, the chances of a high-scoring series are high.
If we exclude the last game of the Regular Season Series(starters were resting), the lowest total was a respectable 112 by the Pacers. Both teams crossed 120+ once, and that can be the template of the series.
But then again, it is the playoffs where referees allow more contact, and players also want to play high-intensity games. Thus, it can bring down the scoring.
The bookmakers are projecting a score of around 230. I agree with a similar range. I’d go for the “Over” mark, but it feels like it will be touch-and-go here.
Donovan Mitchell to score over 25.5 points: Mitchell had 35 points and 19 points in two games against Indiana this season. He can fancy a big night despite suffering from multiple injuries. I see him scoring around 25.
Tyrese Haliburton to dish over 10.5 assists: Haliburton had 10 and 5 assists in two games against the Cavs during the Regular Season. He averaged 11.6 helpers against the Bucks in the First Round. I believe he will dish at least 11 assists here.
Jarrett Allen to grab over 10.5 rebounds: The Cavs Center gathered 9.3 rebounds per game in three matches against the Pacers. He accumulated 10.3 RPG in the first round series, and I see him going around a similar number.
Main pick: Jarrett Allen O 10.5 rebounds for -118 at BetMGM
This is a perfect match-up. Both teams have a ton of confidence and are tailor-made for postseason play. Indiana is riding their 2024 postseason form when it made it past the East Semis. Meanwhile, Cleveland is playing exquisite team basketball that has championship potential.
I see the Cavaliers starting the series with a bang, but have some doubts about the allotted spread of -8.5 in their favor. I see the Pacers losing by 5-7 points, hence, covering the spread by a whisker perhaps.
Betting Lines:
Safe Spread Pick: Pacers +7.5 for +105 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
nba
