Shapovalov beat Ruud in the Dallas final earlier this year.
No. 2 seed Casper Ruud will continue his quest for a spot in the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals on Saturday. The Norwegian is currently 11th in the Live Race to Turin, and is set to face third seed Denis Shapovalov in the 2025 ATP Nordic Open Stockholm semifinals. The winner of this encounter is set to take on either Holger Rune or Ugo Humbert in the final on Sunday. Today, we will take you through the preview, predictions and betting odds for this match-up (via BetMGM).
World No. 12 Casper Ruud won the Madrid Masters title in May, and also finished as the runner-up in Dallas and semifinalist in Tokyo. The 26-year-old has looked in fine touch this week. He was drawn against Marin Cilic in the Stockholm Round of 16, and made it look easy with a straightforward 7-6(2) 6-4 win. In the quarterfinals, Ruud dropped the opener against Sebastian Korda before winning in three sets. The second seed comes into this match with a win-loss record of 35-14 in 2025.
Denis Shapovalov is a former Top-10 player, and currently ranks as the Canadian No. 2 as per the ATP Rankings. Shapo is also the third highest ranked male player from his country in the Open Era. Despite having an inconsistent season, the 26-year-old southpaw has won two trophies – in Dallas and Los Cabos. Having won just three matches in his last five tournaments, the World No. 23 entered the Stockholm draw with momentum against him. But his wins over Leo Borg and Elias Ymer will reinstate some faith in his own abilities.
Casper Ruud has a head-to-head record of 2-1 against Denis Shapovalov. He won the first two match-ups of the rivalry, before the Canadian bounced back in the final of Dallas 2025.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Dallas | Final | Denis Shapovalov | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2022 Rome | Quarterfinal | Casper Ruud | 7-6(7) 7-5 |
| 2021 Geneva | Final | Casper Ruud | 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| Casper Ruud | Category | Denis Shapovalov |
| 12 | Current Ranking | 23 |
| 293-154 | Career W-L Record | 231-191 |
| 35-14 | YTD W-L Record | 24-19 |
| 13 | Career Titles | 4 |
| 1 | YTD Titles | 2 |
| 0 | Grand Slams | 0 |
Having had some tense exchanges with the crowd on Friday, Shapovalov might face some heat in the Swedish capital. Ruud must look to pounce on any lapses in concentration from his Canadian counterpart. The three-time Grand Slam finalist has been winning an average of 85% first serve points this week, and has improved on his groundstrokes too. If he can neutralize Shapovalov’s impressive wide angles and cross-court follow-ups, the No. 2 seed will be the favorite to advance.
Prediction: Casper Ruud in three sets.
Ruud (11/20) is the favorite and Shapovalov (7/5) is the underdog in the ATP Stockholm Open semifinal. According to the implied probability on the money line, the Norwegian has a 67% chance of advancing to Sunday’s summit clash. Take a look at all the important odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Mike Frey, Imagn Images)
