Carlos Alcaraz vs. Zizou Bergs Preview, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Japan Open 2025 Round of 16

All eyes on the Spaniard after his injury scare in Round-1.

Top seed Carlos Alcaraz is set to face Zizou Bergs of Belgium in the 2025 Japan Open Round of 16 on Saturday. The Spaniard defeated Sebastian Baez in his opener, after overcoming a minor mid-match foot injury. Meanwhile, Bergs upset Chengdu Open winner Alejandro Tabilo in a thrilling battle to reach this stage. The winner of this match will face either Brandon Nakashima or Marton Fucsovics in the quarterfinals. BetMGM is going to give you the most accurate betting odds for this pre-quarterfinal encounter in Tokyo.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Zizou Bergs Match Preview

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz ascended the throne after a titanic triumph over Jannik Sinner in the 2025 US Open final. The 22-year-old has captured seven trophies this year, including two majors. He lost the Wimbledon final to Sinner and was defeated in the Australian Open QFs by Novak Djokovic. Overall, ‘Carlitos’ has garnered a record of 61-6: including a run of eight consecutive finals. Despite this, he recently failed to take Team Europe over the line at the recently concluded Laver Cup 2025.

Andre Agassi says Carlos Alcaraz "has the whole package" as a player 🎾🔥 pic.twitter.com/nTgU7HauCv
— TNT Sports (@tntsports) September 25, 2025

Within the first two months of the season, Zizou Bergs achieved a runner-up finish in Auckland before making the Open 13 semifinals. After a cloudy couple of months, the 26-year-old bounced back by reaching another final at the Libema Open. Bergs is currently ranked No. 45 in the world, which is a career-best statistic for him. He has just hit 25 wins for the season, and wins 73% points on first serve. The Belgian also earned his maiden Top-10 win in 2025 – over Andrey Rublev in Miami.

Alcaraz and Bergs do not have a head-to-head record as yet. The Japan Open 2025 Round of 16 will be their first tour-level meeting.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Zizou Bergs Career Comparison

Carlos Alcaraz	Category	Zizou Bergs
1	Current Ranking	45
271-62	Career W-L Record	48-59
62-6	YTD W-L Record	25-22
23	Career Titles	0
7	YTD Titles	0
6	Grand Slams	0

Carlos Alcaraz vs Zizou Bergs ATP Japan Open 2025 Prediction

MARCA reports that Alcaraz is still feeling some pain in his left ankle 24h after what happened yesterday in his match vs. Baez.

He didn't practice today and will decide tomorrow if he steps on the court vs. Bergs or not.

Match is last on tomorrow.https://t.co/CWr0EdUTWp
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) September 26, 2025

A lot will depend on whether or not Alcaraz is fit enough to compete at full strength. The 22-year-old had his foot heavily taped up against Baez, and seemed to reassure his fans that he felt better as the match went on. However, Bergs will need to take the attack to the Spaniard by playing first strike tennis. Provided he can stay strong on serve and redirect Alcaraz’s second serves into the corners, the game could open up. It will be interesting to see how long the Belgian can sustain his level – particularly after an exhausting Round of 32 contest.

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in three sets.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Zizou Bergs ATP Japan Open 2025 Betting Odds

Alcaraz (1/20) leads the charge against Bergs (19/2) as far as the pre-match betting market is concerned. According to the implied probability on the money line, Alcaraz has an 88% chance of advancing to the next round. Take a look at the match result odds, as well as match-specific bets (as per BetMGM):

Carlos Alcaraz Win: 1/20
Zizou Bergs Win: 19/2

Total Games >18.5: 17/20
Alcaraz -5.5 (Game Handicap): 8/13
Alcaraz to Win 2-0: 1/6
Total Number of Tiebreaks <0.5: 1/4
Bergs to Win At Least 1 Set (No): 1/5
Total Games in Set-1 >8.5: 11/20
Total Games in Set-2 <8.5: Evens
Most Service Breaks to Alcaraz: 1/40

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: David Gonzales, Imagn Images)

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.