On Sunday, 04/20, the Orlando Magic (41-41) will visit the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the First Round during the playoffs. The Celtics finished second in the East while the Magic seized the seventh seed during the play-in tournament. Will Orlando stand any chance against the defending champs? Read through the preview, stats, and player props here.
The Season series doesn’t convey the real picture
The Celtics and the Magic met thrice in the Regular season, and the latter won two out of three games. But it’s misleading because the Celts had already booked the second spot by the time of their third clash against Orlando, and fielding a third-string lineup. The Magic’s only win against the Celtics was impressive, though. They were without their forward duo of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, getting the job done through a third-string lineup.
However, a 27-point win by the Celtics in the second meeting exposed the gap between the two squads. The Magic is much healthier and is playing much better compared to the window when they picked up their second loss. Meanwhile, the season series total didn’t exceed 215, which can be the theme during the playoff series.
Defense to prevail?
Orlando’s biggest issue was its three-point shooting. During the season, they made just 11.2 triples per game, dead last. Compare that to the Celtics, which made the league-best and record-breaking 17.8 threes per game. This disparity can play a big role in this series, but there is one area where Orlando has been amazing: defense.
The Magic allowed just 105.5 points per game, the best effort in the league. Meanwhile, the Celts are also a stellar defensive unit. They gave up only 107.2 PPG, ranking just behind the Magic. Thus, we can be in for a defensive slugfest, where the Celtics will fancy their chances as the better long-range shooting team.
Celtics Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jrue Holiday | SG: Derrick White | SF: Jaylen Brown | SF: Jayson Tatum | C: Kristaps Porzingis
Key bench players: SG: Payton Pritchard, SF: Sam Hauser, C: Al Horford, C: Luke Kornet
Injuries: Jaylen Brown is QUESTIONABLE.
Magic Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Cory Joseph | SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SF: Franz Wagner | PF: Paolo Banchero | C: Wendell Carter Jr.
Key bench players: SG: Anthony Black, PG: Cole Anthony, SF: Jonathan Isaac.
Injuries: Jalen Suggs and Moritz Wagner are OUT for the playoffs.
As stated above, the totals between the two teams haven’t reached the high side yet. While the Celtics are the better offensive team, the Magic are catching up lately. Defensively, the Magic has a statistical edge, but both teams are super smart on that end. Thus, I believe the first game will be a low-scoring affair. However, i disagree with bookmakers placing identical odds to the Magic going under 96 or so, I believe they will be in a 97-100 range. Meanwhile, I believe the Celts will be in a 104-108 range.
Jayson Tatum to score over 25.5 points: Tatum scored 30 in the only appearance against the Magic this season, showing no regard for their high-quality defense. I expect similar heroics from him in Game 1.
Derrick White to nail over 4.5 triples: White made 3.5 triples per game this season. He made just 2.5 triples per game (35.7% clip) in the two games against Orlando. But I expect him to explode for 4-5 triples here.
Paolo Banchero to be held under 24.5 points: Banchero had a cold 17-point (4/13 against the Atlanta Hawks in the Play-in game but he put up an impressive 25.9 PPG during the season. The Magic forward averaged just 18 PPG in two games against the Celtics this season, and I expect around similar return.
Main pick: Points: Jayson Tatum O 24.5 for -118 at BetMGM
The Celtics have enjoyed a long break before the playoffs and will be fresh to begin the series on their home floor. They are the obvious favorites here, but the Orlando Magic has shown some fire lately, especially improvements on the offensive end. The bookmakers have placed near identical odds around a 14-15 point win for the Celtics. However, I believe the Magic will keep it within 11 points but will probably lose by more than 6 points.
Safe Spread Pick: Orlando Magic +13.5 for +105 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
nba Hi, I am Shubham. I am currently an NBA Predictions Writer on The Playoffs. I enjoy this job because it helps keep me in the loop about the game I love while fulfilling the pleasure I derive from stats. I got into NBA writing through social media interactions in the mid-2010s as I shared my takes on young talents such as D’Angelo Russell. I hope you enjoy reading my pieces as much as Dennis Rodman loved rebounding the basketball!
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