Benfica hold a strong position heading into the second leg of their Champions League third-round qualifier against Nice. They secured a 2-0 away win last week. The Portuguese giants now return home with a clear path to the playoff stage.
The win in France leaves Benfica on the brink of facing either Feyenoord or Fenerbahce next. Meanwhile, Nice face a daunting challenge. They know that they must overturn a two-goal deficit away from home to keep their Champions League hopes alive.
MATCHDAY AT HOME! 🔴⚪#SLBOGCN • #UCL pic.twitter.com/fxwSzU8R3e
— SL Benfica (@SLBenfica) August 12, 2025
| Bets | Status | Moneyline |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +165 |
| Total Shots | Over 26.5 | -340 |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 9.5 | -220 |
| Total Corners | Under 8.5 | +150 |
| Benfica Goalkeeper Total Saves | Over 3.5 | -115 |
| Nice Goalkeeper Total Saves | Over 3.5 | -125 |
| Total Cards | Under 4.5 | -182 |
| Penalties in the Game | Yes | +158 |
Bruno Lage’s side have enjoyed a strong start to the season. They lifted the Supertaca after beating Sporting and extending their scoring run to 21 matches. Their preparations were aided by a postponed league opener. This gave them six full days of rest. Richard Rios is now set for his home debut alongside Enzo Barrenechea in midfield.
Antonio Silva and Nicolas Otamendi will continue their roles in defence. Vangelis Pavlidis should lead the attack, supported by first-leg scorer Franjo Ivanovic. Bruma is set to serve out his suspension, while Tomas Araujo, Alexander Bah, Manu Silva, and Kerem Akturkoglu remain unavailable for selection.
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Nice’s injury concerns have deepened. Especially after captain Dante was forced off in the first leg and Morgan Sanson was sidelined with a hamstring problem. Long-term absentees Mohamed Abdelmonem and Youssouf Ndayishimiye are joined on the sidelines by Moise Bombito, Mohamed-Ali Cho, Tanguy Ndombele, and Ali Abdi.
Terem Moffi carries the main attacking threat for the travelling side following the departures of Gaetan Laborde and Evann Guessand. With Nice’s poor away record in Europe and lack of key personnel, Franck Haise’s men are undoubtedly facing an uphill battle in Lisbon.
Benfica hold a 2-0 lead from the first leg. This gives them a solid defensive cushion. Hence, they are expected to control the game at home. Analysts favour a low-scoring encounter – WinDrawWin places the probability of Under 2.5 goals at around 41%. Given Benfica’s clean sheet and Nice’s struggles away (winless in their last four away European matches), the cautious approach justifies backing Under 2.5 at attractive +165 odds.
Summer signing Franjo Ivanovic opened the scoring in the first leg with a goal shortly after half-time. The 21-year-old looks increasingly comfortable in Benfica’s attack. Now with the home leg offering another opportunity, his knack for being in the right place makes an anytime goal bet at +100 a compelling choice. His debut strike gives him momentum and confidence heading into the return fixture.
Vangelis Pavlidis has been in exceptional form for Benfica this season. Notably, he smashed a hat-trick against Barcelona and scored 18 goals in 39 appearances across all competitions. His consistent output in Europe, plus his technical prowess in tight spaces, make him a high-probability bet to contribute a goal or assist at any time. Thus, making the -175 line justified for bettors seeking reliability.
| Picks | Moneyline |
| Franjo Ivanovic to score anytime | -175 |
| Vangelis Pavlidis to score or assist | +100 |
| Nicolas Otamendi to commit one foul or more | -280 |
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Benfica should close the tie out at Estadio da Luz with another solid performance. Their offensive rhythm, defensive solidity, and psychological advantage suggest a repeat of the first-leg scoreline.
Past form – including sharp finishing and strong European pedigree – points to a 2-0 win that would seal their path to the playoffs.
soccer Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.
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