Bayer Leverkusen will host Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 first leg on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at the BayArena in Leverkusen, Germany. The match will pit the 2023-24 Bundesliga ‘Invincibles’ against the Premier League powerhouse who are chasing a historic European glory. The Gunners are coming into the tie after a flawless league-phase campaign.
They won all eight matches and posted the best attacking and defensive record in the competition. Meanwhile, Leverkusen advanced through the playoff round but have shown mixed domestic form recently. However, their formidable home record at the BayArena adds intrigue to the clash.
You can find more of our soccer predictions on our main picks hub. Here’s how we’re betting Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal tonight, including our Best Bet, a Same-Game Parlay, and key trends to know.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Match Details
Competition: Champions League
Date & kickoff: Wednesday, March 11, 2026 – 12:45 PM ET / 5:45 PM GT
Venue: BayArena Stadium, Leverkusen, Germany
Expected XIs: Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1 vs Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Best Bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
Our best bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal is Both Teams to Score: No at -135 (BetMGM) / -112 (FanDuel).
Arsenal allowed just four goals across eight Champions League league-phase matches. That’s the best defensive record in the competition. Their xGA averaged roughly around 0.65 per match. They well-structured defensive block built around Gabriel Magalhaes and Declan Rice was evident. The duo shielded the back line brilliantly.
The two teams’ recent form supports the pick. Across their last 10 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have conceded only six goals. In that span, they’ve generated nearly 2.0 xG per match. Leverkusen, by contrast, are coming into the tie without several attacking options. Injuries to Patrik Schick and Nathan Tella reduce their frontline depth.
It leaves the teenage striker Christian Kofane likely to lead their attack against the Premier League heavyweight. Leverkusen have been strong defensively at home. They’ve onceded only one goal in their last six BayArena matches. Even so, their attack has produced fewer high-quality chances recently. So, the BTTS pick makes sense for this matchup.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Prediction
Our pick: Arsenal to Win at -200 (BetMGM) / -210 (FanDuel)
Arsenal are coming into this Round of 16 first leg as favorites largely due to their dominant UCL campaign and better form so far. Mikel Arteta’s side finished first in the league phase with eight wins from eight matches. They scoring 23 goals while conceding only four. Their attacking form has been equally impressive.
They’re currently averaging over 17 shots per match and roughly 2.1 xG per game across their last ten fixtures. Their away form has also been strong. The Gunners have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 11 away matches in all competitions. Key players such as Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze have consistently created chances.
Meanwhile, Leverkusen have struggled for consistent results lately. They’ve won only one of their last five matches across all competitions. Injuries throughout their squad includes Mark Flekken and Loic Bade in defensive roles. They’ve been sidelined for some time and are not expected to feature today as well. This also reduces their stability. Hence, it should be an easy sail for Arsenal.
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Same-Game Parlay (Bet Builder) for Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
Bet $100 to Win $470.53 (FanDuel) Total Goals Over 2.5 (-128) + BTTS: No (-112) + Arsenal to Win (-210)
Arsenal’s attacking consistency so far in this campaign sports the ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ pick. They have scored multiple goals in their most recent away fixtures. Pairing it with BTTS-No anticipates that the goals will only come from Arsenal’s side of the scoreline.
Especially given Leverkusen’s depleted attack and Arsenal’s defensive prowess and stability. Finally, including Arsenal to win aligns with their unbeaten Champions League campaign and overall momentum entering the knockout stage.
Arsenal’s ability to generate consistent attacking pressure suggests that it will be a match with multiple goals. Especially if they break down Leverkusen’s defensive block early. The BTTS-No leg accounts for Leverkusen’s injury-hit forward line and Arsenal’s disciplined defense and stability at the back. It has conceded very few clear chances in European play. So, it should also be an easy win for Arsenal, enforcing the final bet of the builder.
Over 2.5: -130 / Under 2.5: -110 Over 3.5: +195 / Under 3.5: -285
Over 2.5: -128 / Under 2.5: +104 Over 3.5: +205 / Under 3.5: -260
BTTS
Yes: -105 / No: -135
Yes: -112 / No: -112
Asian Handicap
Bayer Leverkusen +1.25: -133 Arsenal -1.25: +105 / -1.50: +130
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Draw No Bet
Bayer Leverkusen: +350 Arsenal: -600
Bayer Leverkusen: +450 Arsenal: -650
Double Chance
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw: +150 Arsenal or Draw: -800
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw: +160 Arsenal or Draw: -900
Trends to Know for Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
Arsenal’s Champions League dominance: The Gunners won all eight league-phase matches, scoring 23 goals and conceding just four, the best defensive record in the competition.
Recent form advantage: Arsenal have won five of their last six matches across all competitions, maintaining one of the strongest xG differentials among European clubs.
Leverkusen’s home defensive record: Despite inconsistent overall results, Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last six home matches. They’ve conceded only one goal in that stretch at the BayArena.
Injury impact: Leverkusen are coming into the match without several key players including Mark Flekken, Nathan Tella, and potentially Patrik Schic. It may weaken both their defensive depth and attacking options.
Head-to-Head: Arsenal have enjoyed success in past meetings with Leverkusen, including two 4-1 wins in European competition and a 2024 friendly.
Latest Injuries & Lineup News for Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
In soccer, injuries and rotations can drastically alter how a match plays out, especially when it comes to BTTS, totals, and goalscorer markets. Navigating through a few key injuries in this clash, both coaches will look to lineup their strongest XI. Here are the players who are either doubtful or are set to miss out:
Team
Player
Status
Notes
Bayer Leverkusen
Mark Flekken
Out
Knee
Bayer Leverkusen
Loic Bade
Out
Hamstring
Bayer Leverkusen
Nathan Tella
Out
Foot
Bayer Leverkusen
Arthur
Out
Ligament
Bayer Leverkusen
Lucas Vazquez
Out
Calf
Bayer Leverkusen
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Out
Calf
Arsenal
Martin Odegaard
Out
Knee
Arsenal
Ben White
Out
Knock
Arsenal
Mikel Merino
Out
Foot
Reminder: Always check confirmed lineups 60–75 minutes before kickoff, especially for goalscorer and BTTS markets.
How to watch – quick Q&A
What time is Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal kicks off at 12:45 PM ET on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 (5:45 PM local UK time).
Where is the match being played?
The match will be played at the BayArena Stadium in Leverkusen, Germany.
How can I watch on TV / stream?
Broadcast rights vary by territory. In the US, the Champions League can be telecast on Paramount+. The match will be telecast on TNT Sports 3 in the UK. The match will also be available to stream on these broadcasters’ official websites.
Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.
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