Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Preview, Betting Odds and Predictions – 03/12/25

When Real Madrid head to Bilbao on Wednesday, they seek to end a winless run in La Liga that’s now lasted over a month. Meanwhile, Athletic Bilbao, sitting midtable are hoping their recent home form and confidence from a win over Levante can cause an upset.

For Madrid, the trip to San Mamés comes at a crucial moment: they trail top spot by a point and will aim to reinstate momentum. Athletic, placed eighth and somewhat distant from Champions-League contention, look to build stability before the season’s midpoint.

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Best Bets

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Preview

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic arrive with modest squad changes: midfielder Ruiz de Galarreta returns from suspension, while Oihan Sancet remains unavailable. Several other absentees, including Benat Prados, Unai Egiluz, Maroan Sannadi and Robert Navarro are out. Veteran forward Inaki Williams is still sidelined due to a groin issue. Unai Gomez or 18-year-old Selton Sanchez could slot in, while stalwart Aymeric Laporte may return at the back after missing the last match.

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Real Madrid

Real Madrid expect to field a refreshed defence, with Eder Militao and Antonio Rudiger having returned from injury in the last outing. They’re likely to continue pairing in central defence. Full-back Dani Carvajal remains sidelined, while Dean Huijsen, David Alaba and Raul Asencio are under assessment. In midfield, Eduardo Camavinga could come in for Arda Güler, with Jude Bellingham potentially operating behind a front two of Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé up front.

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Over/ Under Predictions

Total Goals Over 3.5 @ +175 as per BetMGM:

This fixture has potential to deliver a high-scoring outcome. Real Madrid, despite their recent domestic struggles, remain potent attacking threats. Spearheaded by Mbappe, he’s La Liga’s current top scorer with 14 goals in 14 games. Their offensive depth and recent returns to full-strength defence suggest the space may open up at San Mamés.

Athletic Bilbao, meanwhile, have shown flashes of attacking promise at home. And with defensive absences plus squad rotations, their back line may be vulnerable to Madrid’s front-line pace and creativity. Combined, those factors boost chances of 3 or more goals, making over 3.5 a justifiable (if bold) bet at +175.

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Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Player Picks

Kylian Mbappe to score anytime @ -150 as per FanDuel:

Backing Mbappe to find the net seems robust: he has already demonstrated consistent finishing this season, leading the scoring charts. Madrid’s need for a win here to stay in title contention. That amplifies his incentive to deliver. With Madrid likely deploying a strong attack and creating multiple chances, Mbappé remains the go-to scoring option.

Jude Bellingham to either score or assist anytime @ +130 as per FanDuel:

Bellingham’s role behind the front two increases his value for a goal contribution bet. His blend of late runs into the box and creative playmaking adds unpredictability. Especially if Madrid dominate possession and push numbers forward. Given Athletic’s defensive vulnerabilities and midfield gaps, Bellingham could exploit spaces either to score or supply a decisive assist.

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Predictions

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Given Madrid’s attacking firepower and improving defence, they look poised to control proceedings. With Mbappé leading the line and Bellingham linking midfield to attack, Real should be capable of breaking through. Athletic, though buoyed by recent home form and a returning core, likely lack the defensive solidity or cutting edge to restrain Madrid fully. 

Final Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 1-3 Real Madrid

A 3-1 victory in favor of Real Madrid, with room for a response from Bilbao, appears the most probable outcome.

Moumita Dutta

soccer

Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.

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