Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Head-to-Head, Prediction, and Betting Odds for WTA Cincinnati Open 2025 Second Round

Aryna Sabalenka seeks revenge as Marketa Vondrousova eyes back-to-back wins at Cincinnati.

Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will face protected-ranking entrant Marketa Vondrousova in the second round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open. The Belarusian enjoyed a first-round bye, while Vondrousova set up the clash with a straight-sets win over Jaqueline Cristian. Sabalenka has been in blistering form this season, but with a few hiccups. The world No. 1 has lifted three titles with Brisbane (over Madison Keys), Miami (over Jessica Pegula) and Madrid (over Coco Gauff).

She also reached finals in Melbourne, Indian Wells, Stuttgart and Roland Garros. Her deep runs extend to semifinals in Berlin and Wimbledon, plus a quarterfinal in Rome. The numbers back her dominance with 197 aces, a 67.8% first-serve win rate, 46.9% of return points captured, and a 47% break-point conversion rate across 56 matches.

Aryna Sabalenka vibin’ in Cincinnati.

Can’t wait to see her back on the court.

🐯❤️

pic.twitter.com/t0s1xb1aCq
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 6, 2025

Vondrousova’s year has been stop-start due to injuries, forcing her to miss the Australian Open and pull out of Rome. Even so, the Czech has flashed her quality by making the Abu Dhabi quarterfinals and capturing the Berlin crown over Xinyu Wang. The 2023 Wimbledon champion has struggled for consistency, falling before the third round at Wimbledon and Montreal, but her serve-and-return balance remains sharp with 82 aces, 67.3% first-serve points won, 46.5% return points won, and a 51.3% break-point conversion rate in 21 matches.

Set ☝️ to Vondrousova

Marketa Vondrousova takes the opening set 6-3 over Cristian.#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/5wcJj78TWI
— wta (@WTA) August 7, 2025

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Head-to-Head Record

Aryna Sabalenka and Marketa Vondrousova are tied at 4-4 in their head-to-head, a rivalry spanning eight years and multiple surfaces. It began in 2017 in Biel, where the Czech staged a comeback win, and continued the following year in Indian Wells with another straight-sets victory.

Sabalenka then flipped the script, reeling off four straight wins to seize control of the matchup. But Vondrousova struck back, halting that streak with a gritty quarterfinal win in Stuttgart last year and following it up with a semifinal win in Berlin this season to even the record once again.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Berlin	Semifinals	Marketa Vondrousova	6-2, 6-4
2024	Stuttgart	Quarterfinals	Marketa Vondrousova	3-6, 6-3, 7-5
2023	Adelaide	Quarterfinals	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3, 7-5
2022	Melbourne	Round of 32	Aryna Sabalenka	4-6, 6-3, 6-1
2021	Miami	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-1, 6-2
2018	s-Hertogenbosch	Round of 32	Aryna Sabalenka	0-6, 7-5, 6-3
2018	Indian Wells	Round of 32	Marketa Vondrousova	6-2, 6-2
2017	Biel	Qualifying R2	Marketa Vondrousova	2-6, 6-2, 6-1

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Comparison

Aryna Sabalenka	Category	Marketa Vondrousova
1	Current Ranking	59
463-197	Career W-L	289-128
47-9	YTD W-L	13-7
20	Career Titles	3
3	Grand Slams	1
3	YTD Titles	1

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova Prediction

Sabalenka’s all-court dominance and season-long consistency make her the safer pick, but Vondrousova’s Berlin win over the world No. 1 earlier this year proves she can trouble the top seed.

Today in Cincinatti, Aryna trained with Sakkari 🇬🇷🎾 pic.twitter.com/TneAjB2FS2
— News Aryna Sabalenka (@Sabanewsss) August 6, 2025

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova WTA Cincinnati Open 2025 Betting Odds

At 21/50, Sabalenka is favored to extend her strong 2025 campaign and reclaim the head-to-head edge. Vondrousova, priced at 9/5, offers an upset shot but the odds back Sabalenka.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Aryna Sabalenka: 21/50

Marketa Vondrousova: 9/5

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Sets Under 2.5: 13/25

Total Sets Over 2.5: 29/20

Total Games Under 18.5: 2/1

Total Games Over 18.5: 7/20

Sabalenka to win: Set 1 – 13/25

Vondrousova to win: Set 1 – 31/20

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka

Cincinnati Open 2025

Marketa Vondrousova

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.