Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Head-to-Head, Preview, Prediction, and Betting Odds for US Open 2025 Round of 32

Sabalenka’s dominance meets Fernandez’s resurgence at Flushing Meadows.

Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka is set for a third-round clash with 31st seed Leylah Fernandez at the US Open 2025. Fernandez breezed past qualifier Rebecca Marino in her opener before rallying for a comeback win over Elsa Jacquemont, while the Belarusian has yet to drop a set, dispatching Rebeka Masarova and Polina Kudermetova in straight sets.

Sabalenka’s season has been defined by unrelenting form and a relentless schedule. She’s reached finals in Melbourne, Indian Wells, Stuttgart, and Roland Garros, while lifting three titles in Brisbane over Polina Kudermetova, Miami over Jessica Pegula, and Madrid over Coco Gauff. Deep runs at Wimbledon and Berlin (semifinals) plus quarterfinal finishes in Rome and Cincinnati underline her consistency at the top tier. Across 61 matches this season, her numbers speak volumes: 217 aces, 68% of first-serve points won, 46.3% return points captured, and 46.8% break points converted.

Aryna Sabalenka surges to the finish line! pic.twitter.com/KVcue7wFNP
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 28, 2025

Fernandez, meanwhile, has had a more modest campaign. The Canadian managed quarterfinal appearances in Nottingham and Abu Dhabi but struggled for consistency until she rediscovered her spark in Washington last month, where she claimed her fourth career title (her first since Hong Kong 2023) by defeating Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets. Though her year has been uneven, Fernandez played in 40 matches with 98 aces, a 66% first-serve win rate, 41.1% return points won, and a 41.4% break-point conversion rate.

No quit for Leylah 😤@leylahfernandez shows her grit to defeat Jacquemot and reach round three in New York!#USOpen pic.twitter.com/yiF4iPiVXF
— wta (@WTA) August 28, 2025

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Head-to-Head Record

Leylah Fernandez holds a 1-0 lead in her head-to-head with Aryna Sabalenka. Their only meeting came on the big stage at the 2021 US Open semifinals, where the Canadian stunned Sabalenka in a three-set thriller.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2021	US Open	Semifinals	Leylah Fernandez	7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Comparison

Aryna Sabalenka	Category	Leylah Fernandez
1	Current Ranking	30
433-198	Career W-L	218-147
50-10	YTD W-L	21-19
20	Career Titles	13
3	Grand Slams	0
3	YTD Titles	1

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez Prediction

Fernandez has history on her side after shocking Sabalenka at the 2021 US Open, but the Belarusian’s current form suggests this time the script could flip.

Aryna Sabalenka has elevated tiebreaks to an art form 🎨

✅ Kessler
✅ Kostyuk
✅ Kostyuk
✅ Gauff
✅ Kostyuk
✅ Zheng
✅ Swiatek
✅ Gauff
✅ Masarova
✅ Rybakina
✅ Rybakina
✅ Bouzkova
✅ Raducanu
✅ Mertens
✅ Raducanu
✅ Raducanu
✅ P. Kudermetova

17 in a row, and counting. pic.twitter.com/nDyuQdpAhj
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 28, 2025

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Fernandez US Open 2025 Betting Odds

With Sabalenka priced at 1/7 against Fernandez at 23/5, the oddsmakers see the top seed as a heavy favorite to advance.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Aryna Sabalenka: 1/7

Leylah Fernandez: 23/5

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Total Sets Under 2.5: 7/20

Total Sets Over 2.5: 11/5

Total Games Under 17.5: 41/20

Total Game Over 17.5: 4/11

Sabalenka Set 1 Winner: 6/25

Fernandez Set 1 Winner: 3/1

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka

Leylah Fernandez

US Open 2025

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.