Mandatory Credit: Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Head to Head Record, Preview and Prediction Miami Open 2025 Final

Can the American dethrone the three-time major winner?

Mandatory Credit: Imagn Images

In a rematch of the 2024 US Open final, Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will lock horns in the summit clash of the Miami Open on Saturday. With both players desperate for that trophy, all eyes will be on Pegula to use the home advantage and upset the World No. 1 against the odds.

Aryna Sabalenka has entered her maiden Miami Open final without dropping a set this week. Neither was defending champion Danielle Collins any match for her, nor could seeded players like Zheng Qinwen and Jasmine Paolini dethrone the Belarusian. Although the Pegula match-up will be very different, Sabalenka beat her twice on American soil last year.

The last time Jessica Pegula got the better of her three-time Grand Slam winning counterpart was at the 2023 WTA Finals. She ended the dream run of Filipino wildcard Alexandra Eala in the semifinal, and also beat the likes of Emma Raducanu and Marta Kostyuk. But having spent significantly more time on court, it will be intriguing to see if fatigue plays a factor in the title deciding match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head to Head Record

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has an advantageous 6-2 record in the face-off vs Jessica Pegula.

11 – Since the start of the 2020 season, Jessica Pegula (11) is one of three players to have reached 10+ WTA-1000 semi-finals along with Iga Swiatek (19) and Aryna Sabalenka (14). Consistent.#MiamiOpen | @MiamiOpen @WTA @WTA_insider pic.twitter.com/Nq8Bdos2dr
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) March 27, 2025

While Pegula will be the one receiving all the support on Saturday, Miami is a home tournament of sorts for Sabalenka herself – the 26-year-old is a Florida resident. She didn’t lose serve during her semifinal encounter, and comfortably made it to her 12th WTA-1000 final.

On the other hand, the 31-year-old American is on a 12-1 winning run since a disappointing Middle Eastern swing. She won the ATX Open title and has now reached the final in Miami, with just a solitary loss at Indian Wells separating the two. But if her history against Sabalenka is to be looked at, it is not a sight to behold for Pegula.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2024 US Open	Final	Aryna Sabalenka	7-5 7-5
2024 Cincinnati	Final	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3 7-5
2023 WTA Finals	Group Stage	Jessica Pegula	6-4 6-3
2022 WTA Finals	Group Stage	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3 7-5
2022 Rome	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-1 6-4
2021 Madrid	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-1 6-2
2020 Roland Garros	Round of 128	Aryna Sabalenka	6-3 6-1
2020 Cincinnati	Round of 16	Jessica Pegula	6-2 2-6 6-3

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Titles Comparison

Aryna Sabalenka	Category	Jessica Pegula
3	Grand Slams	0
18	WTA Singles Titles	7
6	WTA Doubles Titles	7
7	WTA-1000 Titles	3
R2 (Tokyo 2020)	Olympics Best Performance	R2 (Paris 2024)
No. 1	Current World Ranking	No. 4

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Miami Open 2025 Final Prediction

Jessica Pegula has shown in the past that she is a force to be reckoned with in WTA-1000s. However, Aryna Sabalenka might just be an obstacle too challenging to overcome. On courts that are faster than Indian Wells and have low skiddy bounce, the Belarusian is going to be extremely hard to beat. We predict a 19th career WTA title for the World No. 1 on Saturday.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Miami Open 2025 Final Betting Odds

Aryna Sabalenka Win: 31/100

Jessica Pegula Win: 5/2

Aryna Sabalenka

Jessica Pegula

Miami Open

Tennis

WTA

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.