Jul 4, 2025; Wimbledon, United Kingdom; Aryna Sabalenka returns a shot during her match against Emma Raducanu of Great Britain on day five at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens Head-to-Head Record, Prediction and Betting Odds for Wimbledon 2025 Round of 16

13th meeting between two old friends and rivals at All England Club.

Jul 4, 2025; Wimbledon, United Kingdom; Aryna Sabalenka returns a shot during her match against Emma Raducanu of Great Britain on day five at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

A long-standing rivalry will take centre stage yet again, as two former doubles partners – Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens – meet in the 2025 Wimbledon Championships Round-4 on Super Sunday. While the World No. 1 diffused the British threat of Emma Raducanu in her last match, Mertens shocked 14th seed Elina Svitolina to enter this battlefield. As two of the WTA’s fiercest strikers of the tennis ball lock horns, only one can progress to the last eight stage.

Aryna Sabalenka is enjoying a phenomenal season, outlined by three trophies and four other finals. After missing out at the Championships in 2024 due to injury, the top seed has entered three consecutive Grand Slam finals. An immaculate 45-8 record quantifies Sabalenka’s dominance over the circuit, and her consistency speaks for itself. The 27-year-old defeated Branstine, Bouzkova and Raducanu to reach this stage.

Aryna Sabalenka after beating Raducanu at Wimbledon

“Wow. What an atmosphere. My ears are still hurting. It was super loud. Every time you were cheering her up I was telling myself, ‘Just pretend they’re cheering for you’” 😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/nx73EQIKsJ
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) July 4, 2025

One of the most underrated players on tour, Elise Mertens secured a groundbreaking win over Svitolina to enter her 15th Grand Slam second week over the weekend. The Belgian baseliner has been winning well over 75% points on first serve, and she backs it up with an aggressive position during rallies. Mertens has won two titles in 2025 – including the Libema Open leading up to SW19. Honing a 29-12 record so far, her other wins ahead of this match came against Fruhvirtova and Li.

That’s Elise Mertens’ FIFTEENTH Grand Slam second week, and she’s not even 30 yet!

What a great underrated career 👏 pic.twitter.com/uBKQlX795O
— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) July 4, 2025

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens Head to Head Record

Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head against Elise Mertens by a scoreline of 10-2. She has an 83% success rate against the Belgian counterpart ahead of Wimbledon 2025.

While Mertens grabbed two out of the first three matches against Sabalenka, the Belarusian No. 1 has dominated proceedings since then. She is on a 9-match winning streak against the 29-year-old. During their first three meetings, Mertens was seeded and ranked higher than Sabalenka. Since then, the three-time Grand Slam champion began her rapid rise to ascendancy.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025 Madrid	Round of 32	Aryna Sabalenka	3-6 6-2 6-1
2025 Stuttgart	Quarterfinal	Aryna Sabalenka	6-4 6-1
2024 US Open	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-2 6-4
2023 Australian Open	Round of 32	Aryna Sabalenka	6-2 6-3
2021 US Open	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-4 6-1
2021 Madrid	Quarterfinal	Aryna Sabalenka	6-1 4-0 RET.
2020 Linz	Final	Aryna Sabalenka	7-5 6-2
2020 Dubai	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	6-4 6-3
2019 Zhuhai	Round-1	Aryna Sabalenka	6-4 3-6 7-5
2018 Montreal	Round of 16	Elise Mertens	2-6 7-6(1) 6-0
2018 Eastbourne	Round of 16	Aryna Sabalenka	7-5 2-6 7-6(4)
2018 Lugano	Final	Elise Mertens	7-5 6-2

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens Career Comparison

Aryna Sabalenka	Category	Elise Mertens
3	Grand Slams	0
20	WTA Singles Titles	10
6	WTA Doubles Titles	21
9	WTA-1000 Titles	0
R2 (Tokyo 2020)	Olympics Best Performance	R1 (Tokyo 2020)
No. 1	Current World Ranking	No. 23

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens Wimbledon 2025 Prediction

Prior to their last encounter in Madrid, Sabalenka hadn’t dropped a single set across seven previous victories vs Mertens. The Belarusian has asserted a rare dominance that is seen against the Belgian, owing to her unmatched attacking artistry. While Mertens’ average court position is on the baseline if not ahead of it, she will be pushed back against the No. 1 ranked player in the world. Although we think she could unsettle Sabalenka with her pinpoint accurate groundstrokes, the two-time Wimbledon semifinalist is likely to pass through unscathed.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in three sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens Wimbledon 2025 Betting Odds

Aryna Sabalenka is the favourite in this Round of 16 clash against underdog Elise Mertens. According to the money line, her pre-match probability stands at 82%. Here are the match result odds (as per BetMGM):

Aryna Sabalenka Win: 11/50
Elise Mertens Win: 10/3

For this match, the betting market is showing constant fluctuation. This indicates a potential tilt in the outcome at any given point, and multiple results on the cards. However, a win for Sabalenka is a strong possibility. Here are the match-specific odds (as per BetMGM):

Total Games <20.5: 9/10
Sabalenka -4.5 (Game Handicap): 3/4
Mertens +4.5 (Game Handicap): 21/20
Sabalenka to Win 2-0: 3/5

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Susan Mullane, Imagn Images)

Aryna Sabalenka

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Elise Mertens

Emma Raducanu

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Wimbledon

Wimbledon 2025

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Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.