Semifinal spots up for grabs in Riyadh.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and World No. 3 Coco Gauff will clash for the 12th time in their careers, as they face one another in a high stakes WTA Finals 2025 battle. Both players are searching for a spot in the semifinals – while the Belarusian has won both matches so far, Gauff has one win to her name. Which of the two champions will showcase their mentality under pressure? Today, we will take you through the preview, head-to-head, predictions and betting odds for this contest (via BetMGM).
The Sabalenka-Gauff rivalry has given us some of the best women’s singles encounters in recent times. The 21-year-old American has beaten the top seed at two Grand Slam finals – at the 2023 US Open and 2025 French Open. She also got the better of Sabalenka in the semifinal of last year’s WTA Finals with a 7-6(4) 6-3 win. Meanwhile, the 27-year-old World No. 1 also picked up big wins over Gauff at the Australian Open, Madrid Open and Wuhan Open.
Sabalenka has won four trophies and reached four other finals in 2025. With a dominant win-loss record of 61-11, the four-time Grand Slam champion is undoubtedly the player to beat in the WTA. On the other hand, Gauff has picked up two singles titles and a doubles championship too. Despite her recent struggles on serve, the reigning Roland Garros champ has a success rate of 76% in the ongoing season.
Coco Gauff leads the head-to-head against Aryna Sabalenka by a narrow 6-5 margin.
The two superstars have met thrice at the Grand Slam level – with Gauff winning two of these encounters. Interestingly, grass is the only surface where they haven’t contested a match yet. In 2025, their rivalry stands at 1-1 thus far.
| Event | Round | Winner | Score |
| 2025 Roland Garros | Final | Coco Gauff | 6-7(5) 6-2 6-4 |
| 2025 Madrid | Final | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 7-6(3) |
| 2024 WTA Finals | Semifinal | Coco Gauff | 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2024 Wuhan | Semifinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 1-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024 Australian Open | Semifinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2023 US Open | Final | Coco Gauff | 2-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023 Indian Wells | Quarterfinal | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2022 Toronto | Round of 16 | Coco Gauff | 7-5 4-6 7-6(4) |
| 2021 Rome | Round of 16 | Coco Gauff | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2020 Ostrava | Round of 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1-6 7-5 7-6(2) |
| 2020 Lexington | Round of 16 | Coco Gauff | 7-6(4) 4-6 6-4 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Category | Coco Gauff |
| 1 | Current Ranking | 3 |
| 477-199 | Career W-L Record | 277-114 |
| 61-11 | YTD W-L Record | 48-15 |
| 21 | Career Titles | 11 |
| 4 | YTD Titles | 2 |
| 4 | Grand Slams | 2 |
Sabalenka will look to intensify Gauff’s concerns on serve by adopting an attacking mindset on the return. However, the Belarusian has risked becoming too aggressive in the past, which has led to several unforced errors due to the American’s defensive prowess. Against Pegula, the World No. 1 proved that she can dig deep and fight fire with fire. Meanwhile, Gauff’s main strategy will be to mix up the serves to keep Sabalenka guessing, and produce a counter-attacking masterclass to keep her hopes of qualification alive.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets.
Sabalenka is the clear favorite to win the WTA Finals 2025 Group Stage encounter against Gauff. The Belarusian has odds of 8/13, as opposed to 5/4 for her opponent. According to the implied probability on the money line, Sabalenka has a 66% chance of emerging victorious. Here are the odds (as per BetMGM):
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credits: Susan Mullane, Imagn Images)
