Alexander Zverev vs. Lorenzo Sonego Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP China Open 2025 Round-1

Highly anticipated opening round action awaits in Beijing.

No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev has a nightmarish draw at the 2025 China Open in Beijing, starting with a complicated Round of 32 battle against Lorenzo Sonego. Although the German powerhouse has a convincing record against the 30-year-old, he is currently on a low in terms of form and confidence. The winner of this match will advance to the pre-quarterfinals, where they will face either Tallon Griekspoor or Corentin Moutet. Let’s break down this contest, followed by the BetMGM betting odds.

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego Match Preview

At the 2025 Laver Cup, Alexander Zverev confirmed that he has been dealing with some back issues since the US Open. The German World No. 3 has arguably encountered a below par season, when contextualized with his high standards. After reaching another Grand Slam final at Melbourne Park, Sascha failed to enter another summit clash until he won the BMW Open in April. Another dry patch was followed by a runner-up finish in Stuttgart and semifinals at Halle, Toronto and Cincinnati. The 28-year-old went winless at the Laver Cup, and has a 45-17 record in 2025.

Alexander Zverev joining an elite group 👏

he becomes the first man born in 1990 or later to record 500 tour-level wins! pic.twitter.com/WzQGsYTyIK
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 1, 2025

While he is one among ATP stars with an extremely high ceiling, Lorenzo Sonego has struggled to find consistency on tour. At the age of 30, he has won four singles titles during the course of his career. Yet, Sonego’s 2025 record of 17-22 does not do justice to his immense potential. The Italian World No. 44 began the year by reaching his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open. Since then, another last eight finish at the Open 13 happens to be his best performance.

Sensazionale 🇮🇹

Lorenzo Sonego wins a five-set thriller in over five hours, defeating Brandon Nakashima 6-7(5), 7-6(8), 7-6(2), 3-6, 7-6(3)#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/1gqaAoSd11
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 5, 2025

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego Head to Head Record

The head-to-head between Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Sonego is currently 5-0 in favor of the German. Zverev has dropped just two sets across five encounters vs the Italian, and also beat him once this year.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025 Halle	Round of 16	Alexander Zverev	3-6 6-4 7-6(2)
2024 Halle	Round of 16	Alexander Zverev	6-4 7-6(5)
2024 United Cup	Round Robin	Alexander Zverev	6-7(5) 6-3 6-4
2023 Dubai	Quarterfinal	Alexander Zverev	7-5 6-4
2021 Monte Carlo	Round of 32	Alexander Zverev	6-3 6-3

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego Career Comparison

Alexander Zverev	Category	Lorenzo Sonego
3	Current Ranking	44
508-215	Career W-L Record	159-177
45-17	YTD W-L Record	17-22
24	Career Titles	4
1	YTD Titles	0
0	Grand Slams	0

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego ATP China Open 2025 Prediction

Zverev’s quality and talent has never been in question. While the German has victories over the best players in the world over the years, he currently lacks the conviction required to win big titles. He has a knack of choosing the safer option, rather than trusting his ability and going for the kill. On the other hand, Sonego tends to up his level against the top ranked players, and plays an attacking brand of tennis. We sense that he could pounce on Zverev’s second serves and potentially cause an upset in Beijing.

Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego in three sets.

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego ATP China Open 2025 Betting Odds

Zverev starts as the favorite against underdog Sonego in the ATP-500 at Beijing. According to the implied probability on the money line, he has a 78% chance of advancing to the pre-quarterfinal stage. Here are the odds (as per BetMGM):

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Alexander Zverev Win: 1/10
Lorenzo Sonego Win: 11/2

Set-1 to Zverev (Yes): 1/5
Set-2 to Zverev (Yes): 1/5
Sonego to Win At Least 1 Set (No): 11/20
Total Sets <2.5: 8/25
Total Number of Tiebreaks <0.5: 8/13
Most Service Breaks to Zverev (Yes): 2/9

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Geoff Burke, Imagn Images)

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.