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Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Sixth seed Alex de Minaur faces 10th seed Alexander Bublik in the fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne, with de Minaur priced as the favorite. The Aussie opened his campaign with a straight-sets win over lucky loser Mackenzie McDonald, then had to dig out a comeback win against Hamad Medjedovic. He tightened up again with a straight-sets victory over 29th seed Frances Tiafoe.
Bublik, however, arrives in this spot in far cleaner form through the draw. He’s been razor sharp all week, recording straight-set wins over Jenson Brooksby, Marton Fucsovics, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry. That matters for totals and set markets, because Bublik’s game is heavily serve-led. When he’s seeing the ball well, he can keep sets on a narrow margin even against elite defenders.
Statistically, de Minaur’s 2025 stats explain why the market still leans his way, with 73% first-serve points won paired with an elite 32% first-serve return points won. Plus 43% breakpoint conversion across 597 opportunities. But Bublik’s ceiling is obvious too, coming off a Hong Kong title and posting 674 aces with 79% first-serve points won in 2025. This dynamic often pushes value toward games and set volume rather than paying a premium on the moneyline.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel)
Book: Best price at FanDuel
Our best bet for Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik is Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel).
Given below are the latest odds for Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | de Minaur -166 / Bublik +138 | de Minaur -175 / Bublik +135 |
| Game Handicap | de Minaur -2.5 -120 / Bublik +2.5 -110 | de Minaur -2.5 -114 / Bublik +2.5 -114 |
| Total Games | Over 39.5 -112 / Under 39.5 -118 | Over 39.5 -118 / Under 39.5 -110 |
| Set Betting | de Minaur 3-0 +260 / Bublik 3-0 +550 | de Minaur 3-0 +270 / Bublik 3-0 +575 |
| Total Sets | Over 3.5 -182 / Under 3.5 +134 | Over 3.5 -200 / Under 3.5 +160 |
Our Pick: Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel).
The market has de Minaur favored at -166, which makes sense if you believe his return quality consistently breaks down Bublik’s serve over a long match. De Minaur’s 2025 return stat (32% first-serve return points won) is elite, and it gives him the best serve-neutralizing you can ask for.
But Bublik’s serve stats are so extreme (674 aces, 79% first-serve points won in 2025) that this still projects as a high-variance match environment. Even if de Minaur is the cleaner baseline player, Bublik’s ability to protect service games increases the probability of at least one extended set. That’s why the best price efficiency sits with Over 39.5 Games (-112).
Alex de Minaur had the lead 3-2 in his head-to-head over Alexander Bublik. However, in the more recent matchups, Bublik defeated the Aussie in five sets at Roland Garros 2025, and also won their Paris 2025 meeting in three sets. De Minaur took multiple earlier matchups, including Indian Wells 2024, plus two 2021 wins.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Alexander Bublik | Paris | Quarterfinal | 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-5 |
| 2025 | Alexander Bublik | Roland Garros | Round of 64 | 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 |
| 2024 | Alex de Minaur | Indian Wells | Round of 32 | 7-5, 6-0 |
| 2021 | Alex de Minaur | Barcelona | Round of 32 | 7-6(3), 6-2 |
| 2021 | Alex de Minaur | Antalya | Final | 2-0, Ret. |
Projection: Alex de Minaur wins in four sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Over 3.5 Total Sets (-182, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option.
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.
| Match | Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik |
| Date | January 25, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not before 7:00 PM AEDT |
| Tournament | Australian Open 2026 |
| Event Type | Men’s Singles (Grand Slam) |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia |
| TV Coverage | ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN/RDS (Canada), 9NOW |
| Live Streaming | ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select) |
Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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